Demography & COVID-19

Between mid-March to mid-June 2020, we collected the articles below in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This is a comprehensive list of what our partner institutes and experts wrote on the topic during this time. We thank the Population Europe community for their contributions to this valuable collection of early research on demography and the COVID-19 crisis.

 

In light of the spread of the COVID-19, see what our experts are doing to investigate and address this issue. Demography can help us understand how this pandemic has spread and has had a disproportionate effect on certain age groups, as well as why its spread affects everyone. Check out the articles below for more information:

 

 

• Monitoring life expectancy levels during the COVID-19 pandemic: Example of the unequal impact in Spanish regions, by Sergi Trias-Llimos (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine), Tim Riffe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research) and Usama Bilal (Drexel University). Using data from the Spanish Daily Mortality Surveillance System, the authors find drops in weekly life expectancy compared to the same weeks last year. [05/06/2020]

 

• Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world, by Per Block, Marion Hoffman, Isabel J. Raabe, Jennifer Beam Dowd, Charles Rahal, Ridhi Kashyap & Melinda C. Mills of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford. The authors model the effects of three social distancing strategies on the spread of COVID-19, providing scientific evidence for the positive public health effects of these strategies. [04/06/2020]

 

• Socio-demographic risk factors of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden: A nationwide register study, by Sven Drefahl, Matthew Wallace, Eleonora Mussino, Siddartha Aradhya, Martin Kolk, Maria Brandén, Bo Malmberg & Gunnar Andersson of the Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA). Using official Swedish data, the authors find that being male, having less disposable income, a lower education level, not being married, and being an immigrant from a low- or middle-income country all independently predict a higher risk of death from COVID-19. [03/06/2020]

 

• The Human Mortality Database from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, French Institute for Demographic Studies / Institut national d'études démographiques (INED) and University of California, Berkeley has established a new data resource in response to the pandemic. They report weekly death counts, which could be the most objective & comparable way of evaluating excess mortality from COVID-19, for 15 countries. [02/06/2020]

 

• International remittance flows and the economic and social consequences of COVID-19, by Guy J. Abel (Shanghai University, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU) & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria) and Stuart Gietel-Basten (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology). The authors analyse the impact of the pandemic on international remittance flows, showing the global consequences of COVID-19 for migrants participating in the 'global economy of work.' [28/05/2020] 

 

• Age, gender and COVID-19 infections, by Tomáš Sobotka, Raya Muttarak, Kryštof Zeman, Vanessa di Lego (all Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital) and Zuzanna Brzozowska (Masaryk University). Using data from ten European countries, the authors found that among people of working age, women infected with COVID-19 substantially outnumber infected men. After retirement, however, this pattern is reversed, and the male disadvantage in infection rates peaks at ages 70-79. [26/05/2020]

 

• Infection Rates from COVID-19 in Great Britain by Geographical Units: A Model-based Estimation from Mortality Data, by Hill Kulu and Peter Dorey of the University of St Andrews, Centre for Population Change and School of Geography and Sustainable Development. They investigate spatial patterns in COVID-19 infection rates in the UK, finding that infection rates increased with population density and level of deprivation. The authors also published The Contribution of Age Structure to the Number of Deaths from Covid-19 in the UK by Geographical Units on 22 April; they found that remote and rural communities could suffer 50 to 80 per cent higher death rates because of their older population composition. [22/05/2020]

 

• The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK, by Francesca Luppi and Alessandro Rosina of the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan and Bruno Arpino of the University of Florence. Fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries included, with varying trends by country; in Italy, for example, the proportion of those abandoning fertility plans is much higher than in other countries. [21/05/2020]

 

• Measuring excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low- and lower-middle income countries: the need for mobile phone surveys, by a worldwide group of authors, including Georges Reniers and Ian M. Timæus (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine), Jenny Garcia and Michel Guillot (INED), & Bruno Masquelier and Ashira Menashe-Oren (Université catholique de Louvain). Rapid mobile phone surveys, they write, could help measure mortality trends in low- and middle-income countries. The data generated by mobile phone surveys can play a key role in better targeting areas or population groups most affected by the pandemic. [19/05/2020]

 

• The differential impact of physical distancing strategies on social contacts relevant for the spread of COVID-19, by Emanuele Del Fava, Jorge Cimentada, Daniela Perrotta, André Grow, Francesco Rampazzo, Sofia Gil-Clavel and Emilio Zagheni of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The authors ran a comparative contact survey across eight European countries and found that social contact numbers mainly decreased after governments issued physical distancing guidelines rather than after announcing national lockdown measures. Social contact decreased faster among older people. [18/05/2020]

 

• National age and co-residence patterns shape COVID-19 vulnerability, by Albert Esteve, Iñaki Permanyer and Diederik Boertien of the Centre for Demographic Studies at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and James W. Vaupel of the University of Southern Denmark, Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop). Based on census data from 81 countries, the authors estimate how age and co-residence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries' populations to outbreaks of COVID-19. [16/05/2020]

 

• Check out the projects the Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB) (Federal Institute for Population Research) is doing in relation to COVID-19 (in German). Their demographic analyses are aimed at supporting political decisionmaking in Germany, and include experiences of families balancing childcare and work during the pandemic; estimates of hospital needs; and simulations of pandemic spread taking population structures into account. 

 

• Behaviors and attitudes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a cross-national Facebook survey, by Daniela Perrotta, André Grow, Francesco Rampazzo, Jorge Cimentada, Emanuele Del Fava, Sofia Gil-Clavel and Emilio Zagheni of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Using a Facebook survey with an innovative participant recruitment strategy across eight European countries, the authors found behavioral trends in response to COVID-19 by gender and age, but also substantial spatial heterogeneity in attitudes. [15/05/2020]

 

• COVID-19 related research and resources at the Wittgenstein Centre: Our partner institute, the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, now has a section of their website dedicated to their COVID-19 related research. There you can find a study by Markus Sauerberg on the demographics of COVID-19 deaths; an analysis of gender differences in vulnerability to the COVID-19 pandemic by Tomas Sobotka, Zuzanna Brzozowska, Vanessa di Lego, Raya Muttarak, and Krystof Zeman; and much more. [11/05/2020]

 

• Trust in science and experts during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, by Pietro Battiston (University of Parma), Ridhi Kashyap (Nuffield College, University of Oxford) and Valentina Rotondi (Department of Sociology & Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford). The authors examine the dynamics of trust in science and experts in real-time as the high-impact epidemic of Coronavirus (COVID-19) unfolds in Italy, by drawing on digital trace data from Twitter and survey data collected online via Telegram and Facebook. [08/05/2020]

 

• COVID-19: How can we explain differences in mortality?, a Population Europe Policy Insight by Alberto Palloni (Spanish National Research Council, CSIC) and Stephan Walter (Rey Juan Carlos University). The authors review several possible explanations for differences in mortality rates between men and women, between countries, and between regions. They emphasize the importance of biology in outcomes. [05/05/2020]

 

• Demography and the Coronavirus Pandemic, a Population Europe Policy Brief by Nicoletta Balbo, Ilya Kashnitsky, Alessia Melegaro, France Meslé, Melinda C. Mills, Helga A. G. de Valk, and Daniela Vono de Vilhena. The authors discuss the ways in which demographics have determined different patterns of mortality between groups and regions, explain possible implications for future population dynamics, and offer policy recommendations. [04/05/2020]

 

• Household level health and socio-economic vulnerabilities and the COVID-19 crisis: An analysis from the UK, by Julia Mikolai, Katherine Keenan and Hill Kulu from University of St Andrews and the ESRC Centre for Population Change. The authors investigate how COVID-19-related health and socio-economic vulnerabilities occur at the household level, and how they are distributed across household types and geographical areas in the United Kingdom. [05/05/2020]

 

• Combatting COVID-19’s effect on children, a report from the OECD which aims to raise attention on the need to put children at the center of the policy responses to the pandemic crisis. Immediate government measures need to ensure that children have access to good food, receive protection against child abuse and neglect, have continued access to child physical and mental health services, and can navigate safely on the internet. Policies also need to support parental employment since it is key to fighting child poverty. [04/05/2020]

 

• Fabrizio Bernardi and his team at the European Uniiversity Institute (CLIC-EUI) have been working on the relationship between COVID-19 and social inequalities. Check out the article Social inequality and the risk of being in a nursing home during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Marco Cozzani and Francesca Zanasi, as well as the EUIdeas blog post, Pandemics… the great leveler? on socioeconomic status and risk of infection and death from COVID-19. [04/05/2020]

 

• Eurostat’s new COVID-19 dedicated section brings together a wide range of statistics and data published by Eurostat related to COVID-19. They cover a range of topics related to the economy, society and work, population and health as well as agriculture, energy, transport and tourism. The site can give readers a baseline against which the impact of the crisis on European societies and economies can be measured, provide a wider background or help understand the evolution of the crisis. [04/05/2020]

 

• Intergenerational relationships and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, by Bruno Arpino (University of Florence), Valeria Bordone (University of Vienna) and Marta Pasqualini (Universitat Pompeu Fabra & IUSSP) in collaboration with Aïda Solé-Auró, Léa Pessin and Daniele Vignoli. This website is dedicated to the dissemination of results from an online survey focused on intergenerational relationships and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. [04/05/2020]

 

• Migration data relevant for the COVID-19 pandemic, from the IOM-GMDAC Migration Data Portal. This page discusses data on migrants that can inform how they are potentially both affected by the impact of and part of the response to COVID-19. As information related to the COVID-19 pandemic is constantly evolving, figures and other data will be updated on a regular basis. [26/04/2020]

 

• Implications of COVID-19 for Older Persons: Responding to the Pandemic, by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). This technical brief highlights relevant initiatives underway in UNFPA offices worldwide to respond to the rights and needs of older persons in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. UNFPA Eastern Europe & Central Asia has also released an infographic on ageing populations & COVID-19 risk in Europe. [24/04/2020]

 

• A demographic scaling model for estimating the total number of COVID-19 infections, by Christina Bohk-Ewald, Christian Dudel, and Mikko Myrskylä of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The authors estimate total number of COVID-19 infections based on death counts and infection fatality rates (IFRs). As IFRs are often unavailable, they propose an approach to transfer them between countries. [24/04/2020]

 

• Perceptions of possible co-benefits - views on the intersection between the climate crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, by Sophie Lohmann and Samin Aref of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. While the COVID-19 pandemic has led to some drastic changes in behaviour that positively impact the climate, others caution that public attention tends to focus on the 'crisis of the day,' meaning that environmental benefits may not last long. [22/04/2020]

 

• Epilocal: a real-time tool for local epidemic monitoring, developed by Marco Bonetti (Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA)) and Ugofilippo Basellini (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), allows users to visualize particularly affected areas at the sub-national level in Italy. The software is based on a Poisson regression of the total number of infected cases and deaths by COVID-19 in different regions and provinces in Italy. The working paper on the program is available here. [21/04/2020]

 

• 28,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis, by Jin Wu and Allison McCann, New York Times. In their discussion of the incomplete nature of country mortality data, they interview Tim Riffe and Vladimir Shkolnikov of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in order to explore possible sources of underestimation. [21/04/2020]

 

• The pandemic and the female academic, by social demographer Alessandra Minello of the University of Florence. Using her own experiences working from home with a young son, she writes about gender inequality and household care work in the time of COVID-19, especially in the context of academic careers. She observes that without long-term investment in gender equality, care work will remain unbalanced. [17/04/20]

 

• Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19, by Jennifer Beam Dowd, Valentina Rotondi, Liliana Andriano, David M. Brazel, Per Block, Xuejie Ding, Yan Liu, & Melinda C. Mills of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford & Nuffield College, UK. The authors highlight the role of demography, particularly population age structure, in explaining differences in transmission and fatality rates cross-nationally. The authors provide policy recommendations that take population age composition and intergenerational relationships into account. [16/04/2020]

 

• The Coronavirus Recovery Could Pit the Old and Young Against Each Other, by Joshua Keating, Slate. Keating writes that older societies will have a harder time recovering from the economic impact of the coronavirus. Demographer Brienna Perelli-Harris notes that countries with falling fertility rates, such as Italy, Greece, and Spain, face particularly challenging recovery periods. [14/04/20]

 

• La vulnerabilidad de las provincias españolas a la covid-19 según su estructura por edad y de co-residencia: implicaciones para el (des)confinamiento, by Albert Esteve, Iñaki Permanyer and Diederik Boertien of the Centre for Demographic Studies at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. The authors analyse how demographic and household characteristics affect vulnerability to COVID-19 in Spain. [in Spanish] [14/04/20]

 

• The influence of social and economic ties to the spread of COVID-19 in Europe, by Ryohei Mogi and Jeroen Spijker of the Centre for Demographic Studies at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. Given the role of social factors in the spread of contagious diseases and the known demographic, economic and cultural differences in Europe, the authors analyse the contributions of such factors to the spread of COVID-19. [13/04/2020]

 

• Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research from the University of Oxford Our World in Data team comprising of Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina. Their site, updated daily, provides comprehensive research and data on the coronavirus pandemic, including clear graphs and explanations of major trends. 

 

• The Strength of Family Ties and COVID-19, by Nicoletta Balbo, Francesco C. Billari, and Alessia Melegaro of the Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Bocconi University. They use data from the SHARE Survey and other comparative social surveys on ageing to explore the role of intergenerational social contacts in shaping the vulnerability of populations to the epidemic. [06/04/2020]

 

• Vulnerable groups at increased risk of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa: The case of the HIV population, by Marília Nepomuceno of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR). As COVID-19 spreads, Nepomuceno draws attention to potential differences in the risk profile for the virus in high HIV prevalence settings, specifically sub-Saharan Africa.

 

• The Social Costs of COVID-19, discussing the possibly long-lasting, hard-to-measure, and heavy consequences of the coronavirus outbreak for social cohesion and social capital, featuring Professors Arnstein Aassve, Guido Alfani, Francesco Gandolfi, and Marco Le Moglie of the Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy (Dondena) at Università Bocconi. [02/04/2020]

 

• Demographics of COVID-19 Deaths, a site by the French Institute for Demographic Studies / Institut national d'études démographiques (INED) providing data on COVID-19 deaths by age group and sex for Germany, Spain, France and Italy using official statistics provided daily by the countries. Other countries soon to be added. [02/04/2020]

 

• Expert interview on analysing COVID-19 pandemic mortality, with demographers France Meslé (INED) and Jean-Marie Robine (INED and INSERM). They discuss procedures used to determine death statistics as well as how current research will help inform future measures implemented to address epidemics. [02/04/2020]

 

• Population age structure only partially explains the large number of COVID-19 deaths at the oldest ages, by Anthony Medford of the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPOP) at University of Southern Denmark and Sergi Trias-Llimós of the Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. The authors explore differences in age distribution of deaths from COVID-19 among European countries which have old age structures. [01/04/2020]

 

• COVID-19: Visualizing regional socioeconomic indicators for Europe, by Asjad Naqvi of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This IIASA mapbook is made available to disseminate key demographic and population information in a visible form to assist health professionals, disaster response operations, governments and policymakers from across the European Union. It will continue to expand on a list of key indicators that can be used to better understand the socioeconomic and demographic contexts under which the current COVID-19 crisis is unfolding. [01/04/2020]

 

• A special issue from the Population Assocation of America (PAA) containing studies on COVID-19 from demographers around the world, after issuing a call for contributions on 11 March. This includes a study of COVID-19 in unequally ageing European regions by Ilya Kashnitsky and José Manuel Aburto of the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPOP) at University of Southern Denmark. [01/04/2020]

 

• Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates using decomposition methods: Contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality, by Christian Dudel, Tim Riffe, Mikko Myrskylä, Alyson van Raalte, and Enrique Acosta of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The authors analyse the case fatality rate associated with COVID-19 in several countries and the contribution of two key determinants in observed variation: the age-structure of diagnosed infection cases and age-specific case fatality rates. [30/03/2020]

 

• COVID-19: A Gender Lens, a report from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on how disease outbreaks can affect women and men differently. Special attention should be given to how the work environment - especially the health and social sector workforce - may expose women to discrimination, as well as sexual & reproductive health and psychosocial needs of frontline workers. [30/03/2020]

 

• OECD Reports on COVID-19. The OECD has published several brief analyses on the impacts and consequences of the coronavirus outbreak, as well as possible solutions, in areas including containment, health, employment, education, and more. The site is continuously supplemented and updated. [30/03/2020]

 

• Latin American and Caribbean governments must increase the COVID-19 test coverage drastically to mitigate the humanitarian impact of the pandemic, by Enrique Acosta, José Manuel Aburto, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Raquel Guimaraes, and Marília Nepomuceno of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). They urge regional governments and international organizations, including the World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization, to take immediate actions to drastically increase the availability and coverage of COVID-19 tests in the region.

 

• The Figures of Coronavirus Aggressiveness in Lombardy, a study by the Lombardy Region and co-authored by Alessia Melegaro of the Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy (Dondena) at Università Bocconi. The study provides the first description of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, including who was infected, severity of infections, rate of infection, and other features. [26/03/2020]

 

• Coronavirus crisis ‘likely to reduce birth rate’, according to population expert Dr Liz Allen of the Australian National University (ANU). 'Research shows people are less likely to have children in a period of uncertainty and scarcity,' Dr Allen said. She also discusses the particular challenges and possibilities faced by Australia. [26/03/2020]

 

• The UK's Office for National Statistics is collecting data and analysis on coronavirus in the UK and its effects on the economy and society. [26/03/2020]

 

• Technical Brief on the Implications of COVID-19 on Census, by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). With 150 countries scheduled to complete census enumeration in 2020 and 2021, disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be significant. Several countries have already taken decisions to postpone the census, with many others yet to announce the way forward.

 

• Pandemics and social capital: From the Spanish flu of 1918-19 to COVID-19, by Arnstein Aassve, Guido Alfani, Francesco Gandolfi, & Marco Le Moglie of the Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy (Dondena) at Università Bocconi. The authors use US population data to analyse the permanent consequences of the pandemic on individual behaviour and find evidence of long-term deterioration in social trust, with important economic consequences. [22/03/2020]

 

• Mapping hospital demand: demographics, spatial variation, and the risk of 'hospital deserts' during COVID-19 in England and Wales, by Mark Verhagen, David Brazel, Jennifer Beam Dowd, Ilya Kashnitsky, & Melinda Mills. of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science & the Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPOP) at University of Southern Denmark. The authors demonstrate how the interaction between local demography, morbidity and mortality rates amongst older people infected with COVID-19, and regional variation in hospital resources creates 'hospital deserts' lacking sufficient resources to cope with the virus outbreak. Understanding such local differences can aid in preparing for the coming wave of critical cases through redistribution of resources. [21/03/2020]

 

• A Demographer's View of the Coronavirus Pandemic, an article in the New Yorker featuring demographer C. Jessica Metcalf of Princeton University. Metcalf discusses what this pandemic can teach us about ageing societies, the effectiveness of school closings, and how pandemics throughout history have affected certain age groups. [13/03/2020]

 

We wish all of our audiences health and safety during this time.