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Projections and Forecasts

The one day course (taught over two mornings) will cover different methods for the elicitation of subjective expectations through probabilistic questions in surveys or experimental settings, using examples drawn from recent work in this area. [...]
This paper by Laura de Dominicis, Lewis Dijkstra and Nicola Pontarollo focuses on the urban-rural divide in anti-EU sentiment, and tries to explain why cities – and urban areas in general - in Europe tend to vote less for Eurosceptic parties. [...]
Accessing experts’ opinions
To support scientists and policymakers in their endeavour to study often complex and volatile migration flows, this policy brief aims to understand where most of the uncertainty in the future migration comes from, and what can be done to reduce or manage this uncertainty. This brief is based on research conducted in the framework of the Horizon 2020 Project QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (www.quantmig.eu). [...]
The aim of this paper, building on a conceptual typology of migration uncertainty in Bijak and Czaika, is therefore to provide a deeper understanding of the uncertainty in the context of the tools used for forward-looking studies of migration, and to propose methods for analysing the uncertainty of complex migration processes across the different time horizons, with an explicit acknowledgement of their micro-foundations. [...]
Understanding Society is hosting a weeklong series of debates, designed to look beyond the pressures of reacting to COVID-19 and inform thinking about policy direction. [...]
The Comparative Panel File (CPF) is now online! It harmonises the world's largest and longest-running household panel surveys from seven countries. It is developed by Konrad Turek and Matthijs Kalmijn at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI-KNAW) and Thomas Leopold at the University of Cologne. [...]
On 11 December, the QuantMig project hosted a discussion with Jørgen Carling (Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO), Mathias Czaika (Danube University), and Marta Bivand Erdal (PRIO), moderated by Jakub Bijak (University of Southampton) about migration studies moving away from a more theoretical approach to empirical propositions that have a strong evidence base. [...]
On 11 December, the QuantMig project hosted a discussion with Jørgen Carling (Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO), Mathias Czaika (Danube University), and Marta Bivand Erdal (PRIO), moderated by Jakub Bijak (University of Southampton) about migration studies moving away from a more theoretical approach to empirical propositions that have a strong evidence base. [...]
This theme issue integrates the efforts of researchers working across archaeology, anthropology, genomics, palaeoecology, and evolutionary demography, combining original research alongside critical reviews, to provide a benchmark for the state-of-the-art in prehistoric demography and a statement of the future of this rapidly growing cross-disciplinary endeavour. [...]
Event Review of the High-Level Expert Meeting
On 9 November 2020, Population Europe hosted a High-Level Expert Meeting to discuss what the demographic community has learned thus far about the COVID-19 pandemic and where they go from here. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, it will be important that demographers make a greater effort to communicate their research findings to influence policy measures addressing the impacts of the pandemic. Researchers also need to be more vocal in combating misinformation about the virus and conveying the non-health implications of this pandemic on society. [...]

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