Facing declining fertility rates and ageing societies, many European countries have introduced various family policies, hoping to smooth future socio-economic challenges and bolster their populations' demographic resilience. How effective are these policies? To answer to this question, Vytenis Juozas Deimantas (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute), A. Ebru Şanlıtürk (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research), Leo Azzollini (University of Oxford) and Selin Köksal (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) explored the relationship between population dynamics and policies in Europe, with a focus on subnational regions at the granular NUTS-3 level.
Concretely, the authors examined average population dynamics since 2000 by assessing the connection between population (fertility and migration) policies entering into force in 1996 and subsequent population dynamics observed from 2000 to 2017. In this exercise, they have used various data sources including Eurostat, the UN Population Division, and the World Bank.
The study reveals that urban areas and Western and Northern Europe generally experience population growth, while rural areas and Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe tend to have more depopulating regions. Interestingly, there is a negative association between fertility policies and population growth, suggesting that countries with more pro-natalist policies tend to have higher population decline. The authors also introduced a novel typology to categorise subnational regions based on population dynamics, which provides insights into regional variations in population growth or decline across Europe.
Typology on Average Population Dynamics at NUTS-3 Level
Data source: Eurostat, 2000-2017
In terms of migration policies, the study finds no significant statistical association between immigration policies in 1996 and population dynamics from 2000 to 2017. This result may be due to the complex nature of migration flows within and outside Europe during the study period, which were influenced by various factors such as EU expansion, economic recessions, and the European Migrant Crisis.
In conclusion, the article highlights the importance of considering subnational regional differences in population dynamics and the potential impact of population policies on these dynamics. The findings contribute to the understanding of population resilience in Europe and underscore the need for tailored policies to address diverse demographic challenges across the continent.