Demographic change—longer lives and lower and later fertility—has been the subject of much public debate. A particular concern is that, if sustained over a long period of time, these trends lead to population ageing. As more and more older individuals rely on the economic activity of a diminishing number of working-age citizens, there are good reasons for politicians and policy makers to focus on this trend. Yet, these broad demographic changes also have important implications for families that have so far received little attention.
The family is not just important for individuals: it also serves a crucial societal role. Relatives are often a reliable source of informal support for billions of people around the world. The type of support that relatives provide varies over the life course. When we are young, we expect parents and grandparents to help raise us. As young adults, parents often rely on grandparents and siblings to balance family and professional needs. In old age, many expect to receive some sort of emotional, financial, or instrumental support from younger kin. This is true even in societies with established welfare systems. More so, in the rest of the world.
Family solidarity is so pervasive that it often goes unacknowledged. Many believe, for example, that families are no longer relevant because they have been replaced by friendship networks. Indeed, there is evidence that non-kin ties (including ‘chosen families’) play increasingly important roles in our lives. But it would be wrong to assume that extended families are no longer relevant.
Our new study projects seismic changes in family networks worldwide. We identify three trends. First, families will become smaller, meaning that individuals at all ages will have fewer living great-grandparents, grandparents, parents, children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, aunts/uncles, nieces/nephews, siblings, and cousins. Second, the composition of these networks will change; families will become increasingly “vertical”, with more grandparents and great-grandparents, and fewer siblings, cousins, nieces and nephews. Third, we project that the age difference between individuals and their kin will increase markedly. Families will become older.
For societies, this may imply a net increase in population-level care demands. Some of this increase is already expected as a result of population ageing. But even countries that have planned for these changes (and introduced pension reforms, increased retirement ages, etc.) should consider that family-based support may decline in the future. This means that care demands may be higher than we anticipated. Our projections of kinship can inform policies to support ageing populations. These include the need for more investment in institutional systems of support, especially in the form of childcare for parents (or potential parents) in working age and for older members of the population.