On February 23, 2025, German citizens elected a new federal parliament. During the election campaign, polls showed that far-right parties were gaining increasing support, which was of great concern to everyone devoted to finding sustainable ways to build and maintain societal resilience.
Claudia Neu is a professor for Rural Sociology at the Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development at the Universities of Göttingen and Kassel. She is also leading the EU-funded We-ID research project “Identities-Migration-Democracy”, which focuses on how to build social cohesion in societies with diverse identities. In this Interview, Claudia Neu shares her thoughts on what we can learn from a demographic perspective about the outcome of this last German federal election.
Deutsche Version
Which demographic issues were decisive for the outcome of the 2025 German federal election?
The issue of migration played a central role in the final stages of the election campaign. The terrifying attacks in Magdeburg (December 20, 2024), Aschaffenburg (January 22, 2025) and Munich (February 13, 2025) added “oil to the fire” for political parties interested in divisive and anti-immigrant politics. Since the attack in Solingen in August last year, noteworthy differences between labour migration and asylum seemed to disappear, and suddenly the actions of one meant fundamental blame for whole groups of people, even in main stream narratives.
In political debates, migration was stylized as a national threat. In this logic, the supposedly genuine “Germans” must be protected from criminal “foreigners”. The fact that this fundamental criminalization of migration and immigrants drives the polarization of society, and benefits the AfD in particular, became visible in the election results.
How can we explain voter behaviour in the context of larger demographic trends such as the aging of society?
Already over 40 percent of eligible voters in Germany are 60 years old or older, so elections are won with the votes of older cohorts. First-time and younger voters play only a negligible role in the outcome of the election. Around 2.3 million first-time voters were allowed to cast their vote in this last Bundestag election.
However, according to the Federal Statistical Office, this only corresponds to just under four percent of all eligible voters. If you look at the youngest voters, i.e. 18-29-year-olds, things hardly look any better: they currently make up only around 13 percent of all eligible voters. This ever-shrinking cohort of first-time and young voters is contrasted by an increasing number of older voters.
What does this mean in concrete terms?
Demographic ageing is shifting the weight of votes increasingly towards older age groups. Simultaneously, this means that the voting power of younger people is diminishing. While there are of course diverse values and interests within age cohorts, there are still some issues that have different fundamental impacts at different ages. Already for this reason alone, the interests of younger people are falling further and further behind, and will probably do so even more in the future. In parallel, studies clearly show that children and young people feel forgotten by politicians and think that their concerns are not taken seriously. For this reason, many young people doubt that they can influence politics themselves decreases their trust in the political system more generally.[1]
Is this the reason why young people vote so differently from older cohorts?
The focus on migration in the 2025 election campaign meant that issues such as climate change, social inequality and intergenerational justice were neglected. These are precisely the issues that are important to young people. As a result, Die Linke (the Left Party) was the big winner among young voters (winning 25% of the votes from 18-24-year-olds across Germany).
One reason for this is that Die Linke clearly positioned itself against the AfD, which is an important issue for many younger people. However, young people also appear to be polarized in their reactions to concerns about the future; the AfD performed successfully among younger men in particular, winning a good fifth of their vote.
What impacts do social and economic differences between rural and urban areas have on voter behaviour?
The feeling of being “left behind” coupled with the fear of a loss of prosperity had an impact at the ballot box. Even though the CDU emerged victorious, gaining the most votes from the Bundestag elections, the parties beyond the centre made significant gains. The AfD, in particular, was able to gain points in the second votes (votes for parties, rather than specific candidates) in many rural areas, and not just in the east of Germany, where they have been most successful so far.
The weakening car industry and the resulting fear of job losses and social decline certainly drove some people in rural Baden-Württemberg into the arms of the AfD. However, Die Linke also achieved considerable electoral success with its social justice and peace policy - not only in cities, but also in rural areas. The Green Party, meanwhile, lost many votes in more rural areas, so they remain the party of city dwellers, some of whom fell below the five percent threshold in the rural east.
Billions of euros are now spent by the Federal Government on infrastructure across Germany. What is your view on that?
Investment in upgrading infrastructure in Germany is more than overdue. However, there is still great concern that the immense new debt combined with the costs of demographic ageing will have to be borne solely by future generations, which will reduce their future prospects. So, in addition to a new security and infrastructure policy, we also need a fair intergenerational contract.
Consequently, whether the major investment plans can also be implemented will depend on whether sufficient skills are available for building bridges and ICE (train) routes and repairing the water infrastructure. This brings us back to the issue of migration. We need a new migration policy that steers clear of populist slogans and offers immigrants opportunities to live and work.
References:
[1] Neu, C., Küpper, B., & Luhmann, M. (2023). Studie „Extrem einsam? - Die demokratische Relevanz von Einsamkeitserfahrungen unter Jugendlichen in Deutschland“ (pp. 1–88). Das Progressive Zentrum. https://www.progressives-zentrum.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Kollekt_Studie_Extrem_Einsam_Das-Progressive-Zentrum.pdf
Funding statement
The We-ID project receives funding from the European Union under grant agreement 101177925.
We-ID serves as an official partner of Population Europe for the Berlin Demography Days 2025.