What impact do demographic developments have on trust in democratic institutions? How can demography contribute to this question? And how can demographic insights contribute to the resilience of democracy?
This workshop offered two perspectives on this question, based on the assumption that negative economic developments and regional differences in public services weaken satisfaction and trust in democratic institutions. The demographic analysis of the shortage of skilled workers and regional differences in public services resulted in a number of options for political decision-makers to respond to the challenge of demographic change.
This workshop with academics, policymakers and civil society took place on June 24 as part of the Berlin Demography Days 2025, which this year focuses on the topic of “demography and democracy” and are jointly organised by Population Europe and the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB).
German version
Roland Rau – Skilled Labour Shortage
Roland Rau, Professor of Demography at the University of Rostock and Senior Research Scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, presented the Labour Force Replacement Ratio (LFRR). The LFRR is a tool for measuring the shortage of skilled workers in general across all economic sectors. According to the LFRR, labour shortages will be more acute in the period 2027–2028 than they are today, independent from expected demographic developments in mortality, migration or fertility. Although these shortages will at different rates in the coming decades depending on demographic developments, a consistently high demand for skilled workers across sectors is expected in the coming years.
"Labour shortages will be more acute independent from expected demographic developments."
This demographic reality is unavoidable. Hardly any of the expected demographic developments will lead to a balanced LFRR for most German regions by 2050. Rural areas will be particularly hard hit, while the shortage of skilled workers will be somewhat less severe in city states such as Berlin, Bremen, and Hamburg.
Strategies to mitigate these effects have sobering limitations: declining mortality has no positive impact on the labour market. And a higher birth rate would only affect the working population after 2045, when those born today reach working age.
"Increase in the birth rate today could exacerbate short-term labour market shortages."
Furthermore, an increase in the birth rate today could exacerbate short-term labour market shortages, as mothers would temporarily leave the labour market to care for their children. Strategies relying on increased immigration are also only partially effective, as other European countries are facing similar skills shortages and are thus also competing to attract new workers. Moreover, it is questionable whether increased immigration from EU and non-EU countries is politically feasible given wide-spread anti-migratory attitudes and xenophobia.
"There is no single strategy that will alleviate the shortage of skilled workers in the coming decades."
Realistic strategies for adapting to shortages of skilled workers include increasing labour force participation, especially among women, and improving efficiency through digitalisation processes. However, both options are limited, as they may not be sufficient to counteract the shortage of skilled workers in all sectors. In other words, there is no single strategy that will alleviate the shortage of skilled workers in the coming decades. Instead, it seems essential pursue all possible measures and to simultaneously adapt to the challenge.
Claudia Neu – Regional Differences in the Provision of Public Services
Claudia Neu, Professor of Rural Sociology at the Universities of Kassel and Göttingen, has investigated how population decline is affecting basic public services.
Demographic trends in Germany have varied greatly from region to region over the past 35 years: some rural areas have lost up to 35% of their population, while regions around large cities such as Berlin and Munich have grown significantly.
Demographic disparities are also reflected in unequal age ratios. Many rural areas have a high proportion of people over the age of 65 (in both eastern and western Germany) and a declining young population. A closer look at regional demographics in 2021 revealed a ratio of 1.76 working residents per person under the age of 18 or over the age of 65 in large cities. This ratio is expected to fall to 1.61 by 2035. In sparsely populated rural districts, however, the ratio was already 1.46 in 2021 and will deteriorate to 1.19 by 2035. This implies that statistically approximately one working adult will financially support one person who is not working in some rural areas by 2035 (Fiedler, 2025).
"Overall life satisfaction is slightly lower in eastern Germany."
The constitutional goal of ensuring sufficient access to infrastructure and public services (‘equality of living conditions’) has not yet been achieved in Germany. This situation is reflected in the subjective assessment of regional future prospects and life satisfaction. Poorer provision of public services, as well as socio-economic disadvantages in a region, are associated with lower life satisfaction among residents. In general, overall life satisfaction is slightly lower in eastern Germany and in structurally weak regions. At the same time, there are major regional differences: in growing and economically strong cities, the vast majority of the population is above average in their satisfaction with public infrastructure. In rural regions with structural challenges and economic dynamism, however, the opposite is true: here, the majority is dissatisfied with public services (Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (BMWK), 2024).
"Fears of decline and narratives of loss are increasingly decoupled from economic development."
Increasingly more research is being conducted to determine whether there are any proven links between (perceived) living conditions and populist voting decisions. The demographic factor has long been neglected: migration and ageing, combined with poorer infrastructure, can trigger fears of decline and feelings of being ‘left behind,’ ultimately leading to populist voting decisions. The Deutschlandmonitor 2023 showed that feelings of being ‘left behind’ are more pronounced in all types of districts (from rural to urban) in eastern Germany (including prosperous ones) than in the west. Fears of decline and narratives of loss are therefore increasingly decoupled from economic development.
"An important step will be to use the funds from the special infrastructure fund."
To counteract this effect, Claudia Neu proposes measures to improve public services and life satisfaction in rural areas: adequate funding for local authorities, revitalisation of town centres and the creation or preservation of public spaces and social venues such as swimming pools. An important step along the way will be to use the funds from the special infrastructure fund, initiated by the new German government, in such a way that citizens feel an immediate improvement in their quality of life in their local area – not least to counteract the narrative of ‘being left behind’ at least to some extent.
Following up on this discussion, the Berlin Demography Days 2025, taking place on 27 and 28 October in Berlin, will further explore these issues and offer a unique opportunity for policymakers and experts to come together and discuss what the new German Government should do in order to respond to demographic changes that affect our democracies and to see how similar issues are dealt with abroad.
The Berlin Demography Days 2025 receives funding from Germany’s Federal Ministry of the Interior, Federal Ministry of Health and Federal Ministry of Education, Family, Senior Citizen, Women and Youth (BMBFSFJ).
References
Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (BMWK). (2024). Gleichwertigkeitsbericht 2024. Für starke und lebenswerte Regionen in Deutschland (p. 226). Die Bundesregierung. https://www.publikationen-bundesregierung.de/pp-de/publikationssuche/gleichwertigkeitsbericht-2024-2296688
Fiedler, C. (2025). Alterung der Babyboomer wird Stadt und Land sehr unterschiedlich treffen. Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung. https://www.bib.bund.de/DE/Presse/Mitteilungen/2025/2025-04-10-Alterung-der-Babyboomer-wird-Stadt-und-Land-sehr-unterschiedlich-treffen.html