Since the 1970s, a growing number of older adults have migrated from their country of origin to a new country after retirement. When international retirement migrants leave their country of origin, most are between the ages of 65 and 70, in good health, and seeking a better quality of life. However, the experience of ageing in a foreign country comes with the risk of experiencing insecurity and social isolation. When the disadvantages outweigh the benefits of migration, return migration may follow.
In 2021, the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) collected representative survey data among 6,110 Dutch international retirement migrants in 40 destination countries. Combined with follow-up register information on people’s country of residence between 2021 and 2024, these data provided a unique opportunity to assess the prevalence and predictors of return migration. Our recent paper investigates whether the experience of age-related changes and people’s transnational ties influence their decision to stay or return, and, additionally, how this decision relates to their original return intentions.
The findings show that although only 5% of Dutch retirement migrants had initially planned to move back to the Netherlands within three years, nearly 9% had actually done so within that time. Among those who were certain they would stay abroad indefinitely, 4% eventually returned. This indicates that these migrants’ preferences and circumstances can change relatively quickly. Assuming that return trends observed for this group between 2021 and 2024 continue, demographic projections estimate that around one-third of Dutch retirement migrants will return before the age of 80.
Factors for return
We found that the age-related factors of having poor health and experiencing feelings of loneliness are linked to a higher likelihood of return. Social ties also play a crucial role: return migration was more likely among those with a Dutch-born partner, and those who had children or close friends who resided in the Netherlands. In contrast, strong social ties to the destination country (for example, through a partner, children or friends) made moving back to the Netherlands less likely.
Return migration is, perhaps not surprisingly, most common among those who already intended to come back: 62% who said that was their intention did so. However, while a stronger intention to move back increases the likelihood of actually doing so, it does not fully predict who returns and who stays. Retirement migrants with social ties (partner, children, friends) to the Netherlands returned more often, even if they initially had no plan to do so. An explanation is that retirement migrants appear to underestimate the influence of their social networks in their decisions of where to live. People with poorer health also returned more often than planned, suggesting that health decline sometimes occurs more rapidly or that it is more difficult to deal with these issues in their new country than expected. Return migration can therefore also be the result of external factors, which require migrants to reconsider their original plans.
Although retiring abroad offers appealing benefits like a pleasant climate and new lifestyle, our survey data show that these can become less fulfilling as health declines or social needs increase. Return migration may be a response to changing circumstances, but it can be challenging. Those who return who didn’t intend to might require extra support reintegrating into social systems and formal services in the country of origin.