In recent years, media have repeatedly published anecdotal accounts and narratives indicating that within Western societies, individuals—including activists, prominent public figures, and celebrities—are increasingly questioning their fertility intentions, even choosing to remain child-free, in light of their growing worries about climate change.
Past qualitative research indicates that concern about climate change can impact people’s choices to have children in two primary ways. First, it may lead individuals to consider having fewer children to reduce their environmental footprint. Second, it may foster feelings of guilt or apprehension about bringing a child into a world threatened by the impacts of climate change. Both arguments reflect a broader sense of uncertainty and pessimism about the future due to climate change, which can provoke worry and anxiety.
However, research into this phenomenon on a societal scale has been limited. Are climate change worries linked to lower fertility intentions more broadly? If so, are these worries primarily associated with a reduced number of desired children, or does it result in a desire to not have children at all?
To answer these questions, Bocconi University demographer Elena Bastianelli analysed nationally representative data from the 2021/22 Gender and Generation Survey, on individuals aged 18–40 in Finland, Estonia, and Sweden. The survey contains rich information on whether individuals consider climate change to be “not at all”, “somewhat”, or “very” worrying, as well as whether they intend to have children in the future, and how many.
The results reveal that strong concern about climate change is indeed linked to reduced fertility intentions. This trend is primarily driven by childless individuals who express a desire to forgo childbearing altogether, rather than by those intending to have fewer children. This pattern is consistent across all three countries, with a stronger association observed in Finland and Estonia, and a weaker association in Sweden.
This research contributes to the growing body of literature linking new sources of uncertainty to declining fertility intentions and aligns with recent studies connecting societal pessimism to lower fertility.
Fertility intentions are generally reliable indicators of actual behaviour. The choice not to have children, in particular, has been shown to almost perfectly predict subsequent outcomes. Thus, as the negative impacts of climate change are poised to escalate in the future, the association found in this research, between climate concern and childfree intentions, warrants attention.
Climate change mitigation and fertility decline represent two pressing challenges within the European Union. Recognizing their potential interdependence, means there must be a multi-faceted and cohesive policy approach.