Why the Relationship Recession Affects our Well-Being in Europe

Singlehood is increasing in Europe. One in seven young adults in the EU are living alone and many more have no romantic partner. Couple relations have become more fragile. Nordic couples who move in together are less likely to stay together, marry, or have a child, than before [1]. The same is reported by young people in other countries: having less sex, and - notably - fewer lasting and committed relationships than preceding generations did in their youth. 

This relationship recession ranges from East Asia to Latin America. As the FT perceptively reported in January 2025: "The central demographic story of modern times is not just declining rates of childbearing but rising rates of singledom: a much more fundamental shift in the nature of modern societies" [2].

Two expected outcomes need more policy attention. First, birth rates. The rise in singlehood happens in tandem with the global baby bust. With a total fertility rate of 1.38 in 2023, the European Union has entered a phase of ultra-low fertility [3]. In my own country, Finland, around every second person aged 35 is childless - and lack of a suitable partner is the single major cause to remain so, for those who would like to have a child.

However, we need to notice a further outcome: well-being. While some prefer to be single and flourish alone, living in a couple is for most of us related to being happier and healthier. 

Indeed, having a partner is arguably one of the strongest predictors of well-being, especially for men, and especially as we age. Among older Europeans, those who have spent most of their lives in a stable marriage are happier and healthier, even after controlling for socioeconomic status [4]. The higher well-being is largely explained by how satisfied the spouses are with their relationship [5].

The resource "partnership" is unevenly distributed

The less privileged are also worst hit by the relationship recession. In many countries, marriage rates have remained persistently high for those with more assets, such as higher education or home-ownership. When we can include data not only on marriage but also on cohabitation and dating, they present a similar uneven distribution. 

The Figure below is from the 2024 Finnish Family Barometer survey and shows how higher levels of education go hand in hand with being currently married, or cohabiting, or dating. Finns with a basic education are almost twice as likely to be unpartnered compared to those with a high education. 

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What to do: support family formation

Taking the relationship recession seriously means rethinking family policies. My fresh fertility policy report for the Finnish government listed 20 specific recommendations divided into two parts. I argue that we need to add family formation policies to family policies in the conventional sense [6]. The new challenge of the 2020s is to figure out which policies support people to have children at all, and here well-being and committed relationships are key. 

Of course, we still need family policies in the traditional sense, which work especially well for encouraging people to have second, third or subsequent children, and for which the Nordics have created well-functioning policy packages. 

How can we countersteer the de-coupling trend? Here are three broad suggestions. 

• Well-being in the AI-age: There are glaring socioeconomic differences in who has a committed romantic partner. Some disadvantaged young people have difficulties finding a partner at all, others to make the relationship work. Access to education and employment are key, as always, but so is access to health services and digital well-being. EU's AI strategy should - in addition to moving us to the technological frontline - remember to protect our social fabric and the well-being of couples, families and friends.
• Affordable housing for couples: Housing is a central element to a feeling of security, and investing money and time in a shared home ties couples together. The EU has its first-ever commissioner on housing, with the aim to give housing policy visibility and weight by proposing a coordinated approach. Young couples and families should be prioritised within this framework. We know from research that lower housing prices at the age of marriage can lower risks of divorce. In a study from the United States, having more affordable housing when a couple was in their mid-20s was related to how many children they went on to have, and even affected how well their children did at school [7].
• Listen and learn: Finally, any sensible approach is anchored in the experiences and wishes of young adults. The dating crisis is a hot topic on any youth site or media you look into, from the Modern Wisdom podcast, with 3,4 million YouTube subscribers and clickbait such as “Why does Brett Cooper not have hope for Gen Z & dating?”, to the countless videos by frustrated and disillusioned young men and women on TikTok, the social media app targeted at people under the age of 30. Europe has several formats for making the voices of younger generations heard in policy-making. 

It might be time to broaden the range of policy-relevant priorities to include love, sex, commitment and connection.

All Policy Insights from the FutuRes project

References, further reading:

1. "Partnership dynamics and entry into parenthood: Comparison of Finnish birth cohorts 1969–2000" (Advances in Life Course Research); "Cohabitation and Marriage Formation in Times of Fertility Decline: The Case of Sweden in the Twenty-First Century" (European Journal of Population)
2. "The relationship recession is going global" (Financial Times)
3. Numbers by Eurostat
4. "Stable marital histories predict happiness and health across educational groups" (INVEST Working Papers)
5. "Do you want to? Relationships, singleness and sex life of Finns - Family Barometer 2024" (in Finnish, Väestöliitto)
6. "Finland: helping the world's happiest people have families" (New essay collection from Boom x SMF)
7. "Collateralized Marriage" (American Economic Journal)

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Funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme, Grant Agreement n°101094741. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union