Europeans live longer and healthier – a testimony to the continent’s welfare systems. However, with this change, there also comes challenges. Most regions in Europe will soon (or already) face at least one of the following phenomena: a shortage of care workers, rural depopulation, and increasing social isolation.
It is clear from projections that there is no “preventing” demographic change. Rather, the goal should be to adapt to avoid negative consequences. Such strategies have already been developed by governments in Europe.
In this Briefing, four high-level policymakers recommend best-practices:
- Advance the local care sector: a programme implemented by the Basque government seeks to innovate care work and to make it an attractive option in the labour market
- Show accountability, build trust, prevent polarisation: recommendations from the Lithuanian government show how to foster social connectedness at the local level
- Create a local demographic strategy: an example from Germany shows how to support local communities to define their own strategies when it comes to demographic change
- Counter depopulation effectively: suggestions from the Scottish government tackle how to start addressing depopulation, even with limited resources
Reading time: 6 minutes
Created by Population Europe, with guidance from: Alexandra Schiltz, Head of the unit "Demographic Change, Equal Living Conditions" in the German Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth; Idoia Mendia, Member of the European Parliament; Justina Jakštienė, Vice-Minister of Social Security and Labour of the Republic of Lithuania; Mike Andrews, Population Team Leader at the Scottish Government.
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In an ageing society, long-term care is on the rise as a pillar industry. This trend will create a need to redesign the care system. Policymakers at the regional or municipal level can support this transformation of the care sector with initiatives to professionalise, expand and dignify care work in locally tailored ways.
The following example of such an approach was provided to the FutuRes Policy Lab by Idoia Mendia. She is a Member of the European Parliament, where she also contributes to the Employment and Social Affairs Committee. Previously, she was Vice-President of the Basque Government, whose ageing strategy includes care policies both at the municipal and regional levels.
"In the care sector, the majority of workers are migrant women", Ms. Mendia states. "We see the value in providing training adapted to their specific work circumstances."
Ms. Mendia recommends collaboration between institutions. For example, from 2021 to 2023, the Basque Government partnered with more than 80 organisations from the region to:
- provide training tailored to those working in the care sector
- upskill workers
- promote the creation of business projects related to the needs of older adults
- monitor data for employment, skills and training in the care economy
- experiment with new professional profiles in the care sector, such as jobs specialised in building community, designing inclusive spaces or promoting preventive care
Another effect of these interventions is that they help build respect for a previously often undervalued profession.
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Trust in institutions is key to societal resilience, especially when handling multiple crises. This requires commitment from governments to demonstrate accountability. One way to do this is to allocate local contact people to support the most vulnerable groups.
Lithuania has examples of strategies of how to approach this. The Baltic state is affected by several crises that challenge social cohesion– one being demographic change, and another being the geopolitical tensions with regard to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In response to the danger of a social divide, Lithuania has decided to foster connectedness at the local level.
In the FutuRes Policy Lab, Justina Jakštienė, Lithuanian Vice-Minister of Social Security and Labour, underlined the importance of accountability in this strategy.
“Municipalities in Lithuania have youth affairs councils and disability councils as well as dedicated coordinator positions whose job it is to ensure the implementation of policies that support these groups”, says Vice-Minister Jakštienė.
Such coordinators are accountable to groups at risk of social exclusion, e.g. youth, older people, people with disabilities and foreign-born residents. The coordinators establish guidelines for integration programmes and build the professional competencies of municipal staff (e.g. in intercultural communication and integration).
Further policy recommendations from the case of Lithuania for building societal trust starting at the local level include:
- funding the development of NGOs that empower older people to participate in advisory councils, commissions, and working groups
- facilitating civil engagement that encourages active participation of older people in their communities
- building digital literacy amongst older people through training sessions and event.
- partnering with organisations at the municipal level who help people return to work or school
( Further reading: "Integration Succeeds Locally: New EU-funded project explores resilient communities" )
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To ensure that care for older people and children does not fall entirely on relatives, one strategy is to support arrangements outside of family relations. Municipalities can do so by:
- activating neighbourhoods and friendships
- promoting later stages of life as active, e.g. through facilitating participation in voluntary work
- developing and funding a diversity of care arrangements, especially outside of familial relations
In this, local areas need support from higher policy levels. For example, Germany’s Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth piloted a “Workshop for the Future of Municipalities” from 2019 to 2024, which supported 40 local communities in Germany to create individual local strategies for demographic change.
The national policy level can support this process by:
- providing professional external advice while supporting municipalities’ freedom to choose points of action, according to the needs they identify themselves
- helping create a local demographic profile, with citizen participation
- fostering the development of demographic strategies, including reviews
- creating mutual learning opportunities between municipalities
Providing for better ageing is a challenge for all regions
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Many European regions face depopulation in rural and island areas. The Scottish Government published an Addressing Depopulation Action Plan in 2024, based on recommendations from an independent expert advisory group.
In order to use limited resources effectively, Mike Andrews, team leader on Scotland's population strategy, recommends using a place-by-place approach, which means to ask what is really needed in each area:
- Is the area depopulating because people cannot access the local labour market? Offer skills training delivery, with accompanying free childcare.
- Is depopulation driven by young parents who feel a lack of locally-available support? Explore a childcare model reflecting the distinct needs of the community.
- Is depopulation driven by a lack of a “community feeling”? Create large-scale public engagement, e.g. by involving the community in population policy planning.
Ageing is gendered. Does your policy strategy account for gendered needs?
Conclusion: “Resilience” means supporting people to help each other
Examples from practice show that several strategies for adapting to demographic change already exist. Adaptation can mean rethinking the role of caregivers; addressing the needs of new residents; and enabling older people to continue to participate. But most of all, it means supporting the strength of communities. In short: helping people help each other.
By doing this, welfare states can also strengthen democratic resilience in local communities, as people feel self-empowered and trust in the society’s capacities.
No region or municipality can make this transition by itself. Comparing experiences and learning from each other’s strategies is key, in order to design good policy ahead of potential crises. The FutuRes project and the FutuRes Policy Lab provide a transdisciplinary platform for this, informed by the latest scientific evidence.
Policymakers, researchers and civil society leaders: Join us at the next Policy Lab event “Demographic Resilience in Uncertain Times”, Tuesday, March 11, 2025 (online)
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Acknowledgement: This is a publication by the FutuRes Project. FutuRes is funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme, Grant Agreement n° 101094741. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
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