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Discussion papers
Discussion Paper

White Paper on Migration Uncertainty

Towards Foresight and Preparedness

This Discussion Paper presents evidence and recommendations from the Horizon 2020 Project “Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy” (QuantMig).
Download Discussion Paper 19/2023

This White Paper presents the main results and policy recommendations from the Horizon 2020 project “Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy” (QuantMig). It discusses the uncertainty and complexity of migration processes (Section 1), assesses selected theoretical approaches for explaining migration (Section 2), reviews migration drivers in the origin, destination and transit countries (Section 3), evaluates data and migration measurements for scenario-building on future migration (Section 4) and presents ways to inform and construct migration scenarios (Section 5), followed by the project’s main conclusions and recommendations (Section 6). 

Additional Information

Authors of Original Article


Bijak, J., Vono de Vilhena, D., Potančoková, M. & The QuantMig Team (2023). White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness. Discussion Paper No. 19, Berlin: Max Planck Society/Population Europe.