Migration processes are uncertain and volatile, eluding precise conceptualization, definition, and measurement. Their embeddedness into complex migration driver environments, coupled with a high-level human agency of different actors involved in migration decisions – prospective migrants, intermediaries, and policymakers – hampers both prediction and efficient policy responses. Therefore, uncertainty and complexity as inherent features of international migration flows create challenges for the governance of migration both in the short and longer term.
This paper aims to unpack the implications and transmission of migration-related uncertainties on European migration governance. We specifically address what effect uncertainty has on migration-related policy responses, as well as who assesses and communicates what kind of migration-related uncertainty. Using the so-called Syrian ‘refugee crisis’ and environment-induced migration as illustrative cases of how uncertainty affects European migration decision-making across a range of time horizons, we show that in the context of uncertainty European states rather fine-tune existing policies than making major changes. This pivot towards the status quo, especially for immigration, coincides with a negativity bias, whereby policies respond more strongly to perceived ‘unfavourable’ rather than equivalent ‘favourable’ migration trends, signifying some degree of ‘loss aversion’ among the decision makers – but also highlighting considerable subjectivity of what is considered ‘favourable’. Finally, we also reflect of the reverse direction of the relationship between policy and uncertainty, scant legal options for migrating contributing to the greater unpredictability of flows and decisions. We discuss this as a very important area of further enquiry.