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Created with guidance from: Arnstein Aassve, Bocconi University, FutuRes (Horizon Europe)
Reading time: 9 minutes
In the 2024-2029 European Commission, 10 Commissioners are responsible for demography to some extent. Population policy has been spread across portfolios. The Vice-Presidency for Democracy and Demography no longer exists.
Dubravka Šuica, who held the position from 2019-2024, has taken a new role as Commissioner for the Mediterranean. Her portfolio still includes demography.
During the 5 years of this Commission's mandate, Europe will face the beginning of a large-scale demographic transformation.
Who will take care of the policies affected by this population change? The commissioners will have partially overlapping responsibilities. The following summary is based on the so-called "mission letters" given to each Commissioner by the Commission's President, Ursula von der Leyen. Some portfolios unite policy areas that do not at first glance seem to have a lot in common. The Commissioners will work “under the guidance” of Executive Vice-Presidents, who have their own policy denominations.
Commissioners for Migration: Dubravka Šuica, Henna Virkkunen and Magnus Brunner
Altogether three top executives will deal with migration, reflecting the high priority of the topic. Former VP Dubravka Šuica will keep the “demography portfolio”, now as commissioner for the Mediterranean, for which she will have a new DG. This new regional and partly foreign affairs responsibility includes her home country Croatia, and gives her more leverage, in terms of budget, staff, and also political importance.
One of her tasks is to will "help Member States address their demographic challenges".
“Mediterranean” means migration agreements with North African states, means partnership with Israel, and the Middle East conflicts. With a view to demography, as specific goal is mentioned increasing the labour market participation of women, younger people and other underrepresented groups.
( Further reading: Before the end of her former mandate, Dubravka Šuica invited Population Europe to discuss visions for demographic futures )
The EU Pact on Asylum and Migration is at the heart of Henna Virkkunen’s (Finland) responsibility, which is titled Tech Sovereignty, Security, and Democracy. As Executive Vice-President she will have to install the EU Defence Union.
Austrian Magnus Brunner, former finance minister, was expected to be placed with an economic portfolio. He is now, however, commissioner on Internal Affairs and Migration. This task couples policing and the fight against crime inside the EU with border management and the implementation of the Asylum and Migration pact.
Commissioner for Enlargement: Marta Kos
Marta Kos (Slovenia) will oversee the enlargement policy regarding the EU’s Eastern neighbours (while Suica's "Mediterranean" entails neighbours without accession perspective). She follows the Hungarian Várhely, who is removed from this important topic as a result of Hungary’s Ukraine policy. The Balkan Growth Plan and the Ukraine Facility are specifically mentioned in the mission letter.
In addition, Moldova, Georgia, and Turkey belong to Kos’s portfolio. In the light of Russian military interventions, migration policy and geostrategic considerations, the portfolio needs to work together with Foreign Policy VP Kallas.
Commissioner for Human Capital: Roxana Mînzatu
Social rights, skills, quality jobs and preparedness - this is the headline for the new function of Executive Vice-President Roxana Mînzatu from Romania. Apart from human capital development, specifically intergenerational fairness is mentioned as well as crisis foresight and management, be it in health or in security. Anti-poverty action, affordable housing, labour mobility, and social rights are also included in this portfolio.
Under her guidance, the following two aspects of equality and generations will be addressed.
Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management: Hadja Lahbib
Hadja Lahbib (Belgium) will tackle equality and antidiscrimination of women, cultural and sexual minorities, and people with disabilities. Specifically, a new gender equality plan is expected, including a focus on gender-based violence, and work with Roma communities. After the Parliamentarian hearing of Várhelyi, Lahbib also acquired the responsibility for sexual and reproductive rights.
Finally, Lahbib is tasked with developing and implementing an "EU Preparedness Union Strategy". This entails a "culture of preparedness", regular preparedness exercises, and an assessment of EU Preparedness Law.
( Further reading: Step-by-step handbook to preparedness policy, with methods recommended by the science community )
Commissioner for Generations: Glenn Micallef
Intergenerational fairness, youth, culture, and sport are the responsibilities of Glenn Micallef (Malta). He will develop a strategy on intergenerational fairness, implement the youth check, and work on children’s rights.
Commissioner for Regions: Raffaele Fitto
Executive Vice-President for cohesion and reforms is Raffaele Fitto (Italy). As “reforms” is short for economic development, this mandate will also include contributing to various EU policy plans, such as on housing and on climate protection.
President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen presents her team on November 27, 2024. (Source: European Commission, external content, responsibility is with the issuer)
Commissioner for Health: Olivér Várhely
As commissioner for health and animal welfare Olivér Várhely (Hungary, former commissioner for regions) will address mostly the big tech and medicine related health policies, such as digitalisation, cancer cure, and genomics. Population-based health is singled out in terms of preventive health, within which cardiovascular diseases, tobacco use, and mental health are specifically mentioned. Food policy has been moved to agricultural policy.
Várhelyi’s stance on sexual and reproductive rights which had originally been part of his designated mission, was met with concerns by a group of MEPs. Following their initiative, this topic was removed from his portfolio and shifted to Lahbib (Equality).
Commissioner for Housing: Dan Jørgensen
The new EU Affordable Housing Plan will be in the responsibility of Dan Jørgensen (Denmark), mostly with an eye to securing investment.
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The setup of the new Commission gives an understanding of how Europe’s demographic change will be addressed in policy during the second half of the 2020s. The age distribution of the European population is changing rapidly and radically. A smaller and older workforce, declining birth rates, consequences for long-term care, pensions, and productivity as well as shifts in consumption patterns.
Which policy perspectives does the Commission offer? Since competitiveness and the green transition are at the heart of the new agenda, demographic trends can be expected to be discussed, as they are the foundation for both.
Photo: Andrea Pacquiardo/pexels
Which skills do Europeans possess to master these challenges? Which demographic factors will aid this transformation? How will the transformation change people's lives regarding factors such as mobility, residence, family, human capital, health and life expectancy.
Migration
It has become obvious both from political debate/elections, and from the outline of the new commission that migration and integration is the politically most important among the demography topics. Right now, this policy area has a strong focus on asylum and on security, but also aims at labour migration agreements with EU neighbours.
Enlargement
Previous enlargements have been followed by substantial internal EU migration. Additionally, the incoming commission will have to set the budget for the time from 2028, including the potential need of the candidate countries. Furthermore, access to the single market will have an impact on the current economy and employment.
One well-known example is the competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural products.
Labour markets
Many sociodemographic issues are politically centred around human capital development and labour markets. The ageing workforce and underrepresented groups, immigration, pension systems, care, as well as investment into education are further pressing aspects relating to labour scarcity.
A bit more in the background: initiatives aimed at low qualified people, retraining, and working conditions, or at regions with scarce employment prospects.
Youth
A new focus will be prevention of harm caused by social media use, i.e., cyberbullying and addictive design. Mental health issues also relate to increased levels of loneliness post-COVID. Employment of young people must remain on the agenda as several countries still face high unemployment rates.
Regions
Cohesion policy remains an important issue as the funds constitute a large part of the EU budget. While the overall goal of that policy is clear (helping disadvantaged regions to catch up), different sub-goals can be involved, from climate to energy crisis to youth unemployment. The cohesion policy includes the heavy weight COVID recovery fund.
( Further reading: a summary of demographic policy initiatives planned or underway at the EU level, published by the former Commission )
If we differentiate between directly binding action and other instruments that aim at policymaking by benchmarking and supporting member states, the (binding) directives on work-life balance, occupational health, on anti-discrimination at work, and on labour migration stand out. Likewise, initiatives with a larger budget, such as the one on mental health do.
International migration plays a major role in the new agenda. The focus seems to be on securing new labour immigration. Effective integration policies, including adequate infrastructure, housing and social services to support those communities receiving immigrants should be prioritised. It is important to remember that migrants come with different skill levels. An effective integration policy implies lowering labour market barriers or harmonising them.
With a view to further enlargement, the EU needs to find a better way of combining the benefits of free movement with a compensation for critical labour shortage in the eastern countries.
Skills, youth and ageing: While increasing participation and raising attention for issues like mental health is important, as demographers we urge the commission to move its attention back to square one: securing youth and lifelong education and employment. This necessitates focussing on investment in human capital (for Germany see Link below) and on the so-called NEET group - short for “not in education, employment or training”.
The rate for young people (aged 15-29) in the EU is about 13% among those with a low level of education (2023). There are significant variations not only between Member States but also within countries. For instance, in Sicily in 2020, this rate peaked at 37.5%. Hence, we consider decreasing these regional variations as one of the most important topics - also for the portfolios of “Regional Cohesion” and of “Enlargement”.
( Further reading: The key role of early education in an ageing and shrinking population: The example of Germany )
The need to increase qualification or to retrain because of regional and technological economic adjustments also call for a large EU effort regarding lifelong learning. In the 2024 report on for improving Europe’s competitiveness, Mario Draghi highlights that a “particular focus is needed on adult learning, which will be key to update worker’s skills throughout their lives”. The earlier successful anti-ageism policy initiative of the EU needs to be broadened into the freedom to work longer for those who wish to.
The share of older people in the workforce has increased steadily and substantially. The participation rate of people between 55 and 64 years varies much, between nearly 83% in Sweden, and 45% in Romania. The substantial gender gap in the EU (58% of women, 71% of men in that age group) should also be on the agenda for the commissioner for “Equality”. (all figures for 2021; 2024 Ageing Report, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs)
Family policy is not part of any of the denominations. Instead, related topics are dispersed among portfolios. Family policies play a role for equality and ensuring non-discrimination of new family and partnership models, for better participation of mothers in the labour market, children’s rights, distribution of care and “intergenerational fairness”.
It may be worthwhile for the portfolio of commissioners Šuica and Micallef to encourage discussion on the role of families in Europe, regarding the unequal starting positions of the young(est) generation. The family background has been the most important factor for education inequality for all EU countries. Circling back to the education system and labour markets, EU-wide teacher shortages are especially worrying as member states simply lack the human resources to address these inequalities.
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Acknowledgement:
This article was created in cooperation with "FutuRes", which is a research project and Policy Lab funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme, Grant Agreement n°101094741. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
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