As technological advancement is reshaping the way we live, work and communicate; and as pressing global challenges such as the climate crisis demand our attention, it becomes increasingly clear that knowledge of population trends is key to better policy.
Population data has always been crucial for understanding large-scale trends, but its importance has grown exponentially in the age of artificial intelligence and big data. Many countries, particularly in Europe’s Nordic region, now use advanced population registers instead of traditional censuses to track demographic changes in real time. This real-time data helps governments and organisations to craft policies that better reflect current realities, especially in areas such as healthcare, education, and sustainability.
The UN's 2030 Agenda, which builds on the Millennium Development Goals, covers everything from eradicating poverty to combating climate change. Yet many of these goals are difficult to quantify. Take poverty, for example: though it is a universal concern, accurately measuring poverty is a complex task. Demography helps by providing key metrics like infant and maternal mortality rates, which can serve as indicators of broader social issues. Thanks to advancements in satellite technology, we can now assess levels of poverty and well-being in ways that were previously unimaginable.
But demography isn’t just about data collection - it’s also about shaping policy for sustainable development. In the 18th century, the British scholar Thomas Malthus famously predicted that uncontrolled population growth would outstrip food production, leading to widespread famine. This fear, known as Malthusianism, underpinned early conversations about population control. However, as we’ve seen in the decades since, technological and scientific advancements have largely disproven this theory. The world’s population has grown, but so has our collective ability to improve standards of living. The challenge we face now is not one of raw numbers but of inequality and sustainability.
In 2024, we are dealing with a planet that is more interconnected than ever before. Sustainability is no longer just about the environment—it’s about people. And the most pressing issues we face, such as climate change and resource management, are inextricably linked to population dynamics. As we look at regions like sub-Saharan Africa, where populations are growing rapidly and the median age remains strikingly low, it’s clear that the future will depend on how we manage the needs of these younger populations while also addressing the ageing crisis faced by many Western countries.
Education – a key demographic dimension - will play a pivotal role in this. The UN's goals place great emphasis on primary education, but in advanced economies like Italy, we must focus on improving access to higher education. Italy has one of the lowest university graduation rates in Europe, with just 30% of young people holding degrees, compared to nearly 50% in countries like Germany and an impressive 70% in South Korea. This gap needs to be closed if we are to remain competitive in the global market.
Milan, where Bocconi University is based, provides an instructive case. Over the past few decades, it has transformed itself into a leading university city, drawing students from around the world. However, the city still struggles with a shortage of affordable housing for graduates, a challenge that could hinder its ability to retain the talent it attracts. If Milan - and Italy more broadly - are to compete with cities like Amsterdam or Berlin, they must invest in infrastructure that supports population change – in this case for both students and young professionals.
Beyond education, Italy faces the broader challenge of aligning its population policies with global trends. We are a country with a rapidly ageing population and relatively few young people. At the same time, Africa is experiencing a demographic boom, with an abundance of youth that could either present opportunities or challenges, depending on how migration and labour policies are managed. Italy must embrace its position as a bridge between Europe and Africa, capitalising on this demographic contrast to create mutually beneficial outcomes.
Ultimately, the pursuit of sustainability is not just about saving the planet; it’s about ensuring that the systems supporting human life—economic, social, and environmental—are viable in the long term. With its data-driven insights and forward-looking approach, demography can help us meet these challenges. However, a concerted effort from policymakers, educators, and citizens alike will be required to ensure that we are prepared for the demographic shifts that lie ahead.
The question is not whether we can achieve the UN's 2030 goals, but how we can address the inequalities that still persist across different parts of the world. By focusing on education, embracing new technologies, and fostering greater global cooperation, we can create a future where sustainability is not just an ideal but a reality.
Acknowledgement: This article is based on an interview with Francesco Billari in the context of the BG4SDGs Talks, a project of Banca Generali. The interview is available (in Italian) here.