How Can Europe Better Prepare for Future Migration Movements?

Key Messages

• European migration policies should continue to tackle the root causes of displacement in countries of origin. At the same time, they should take into account the changing nature of the multiple predisposing, mediating, enabling and triggering factors that change dynamically over time and over the course of a migration journey.
• Simplistic policy answers for tackling complex causes of displacement, such as interdependencies between civil war, violence or economic deprivation in countries of origin, should be avoided. Research has clearly shown that they have a weak evidence base.
• In the short-term, governing bodies should develop early warning systems as part of migration policies. In the longer run, future trends based on different scenario simulation techniques are needed. These instruments should be developed in close collaboration with policy makers and stakeholders from civil society organisations and academia.

References

• Bijak, Jakub (2016). Migration forecasting: Beyond the limits of uncertainty. Global Migration Data Analysis Centre Data Briefing Series, Issue 6, Berlin: IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre GMDAC.
• Czaika, M. & Reinprecht, C. (2020). Drivers of migration. A synthesis of knowledge (Working Paper 163). Amsterdam: International Migration Institute.

Acknowledgements:

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This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870299. This document reflects the authors’ view and the Research Executive Agency of the European Commission are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

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