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Policy Brief

Uncertainty in Future Migration Flows: Where Does It Come From?

Accessing experts’ opinions

To support scientists and policymakers in their endeavour to study often complex and volatile migration flows, this policy brief aims to understand where most of the uncertainty in the future migration comes from, and what can be done to reduce or manage this uncertainty. This brief is based on research conducted in the framework of the Horizon 2020 Project QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (
Cover of Report "Uncertainty in Future  Migration Flows: Where  Does It Come From?"

Key Messages

  • Evidence needs to be injected into the decision and policy processes related to migration from the outset, as a way to ensure preparedness for future migration trends.
  • The future of migration trends should ideally be assessed for different types of migration separately. It is crucial to take into account the role played by policies and administrative procedures in shaping migration flows.
  • More collaboration and dialogue between stakeholders is necessary to improve coordination mechanisms for better migration data provision.





EU and QuantMig Logos

This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870299. This document reflects the authors’ view and the Research Executive Agency of the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.


Read more about the QuantMig project here and follow the project on Twitter.

Additional Information

Authors of Original Article


Vono de Vihena, D. & Bijak, J. (2021). Uncertainty in Future Migration Flows: Where Does It Come From? Population & Policy Compact 29, Berlin: Max Planck Society/Population Europe.