Housing is a fundamental aspect of individual and household well-being. The impact of owning a house on an individual’s likelihood to become a parent is well documented, with studies showing that homeownership is closely related to a higher likelihood of having children. However, this broader picture does not consider how everyday life housing expenses (such as bills, mortgages, rent payments, and maintenance costs) influence childbearing patterns.
A new paper by Alessandro Gallo and Daniele Vignoli (both of the University of Florence) analyses how these expenditures relate with the probability of having a child in Italy.
Drawing on panel data from the Bank of Italy’s Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), which covers the period from 1998 to 2016, the researchers examine the relationship between an index of housing expenditure and the probability of having a child in Italy. Housing expenditure is measured using a set of indicators, including being in arrears on mortgage, rent or bill payments, high extraordinary maintenance costs, and facing high rent or mortgage burdens.
Their study yields three main findings. First, higher housing expenditure is associated with a greater likelihood of having a child. This is consistent with the well-documented Italian tendency to improve housing conditions before childbirth.
Second, this relationship only applies to homeowners (still paying mortgages or not), not tenants. This suggests that housing challenges faced by renters, such as high rents or rent arrears, do not influence the decision to have children. Tenants tend to postpone having children until they can invest in a home of their own.
Third, the study shows that spending more on housing is linked to having more children only among wealthier homeowners. This finding suggests that poorer homeowners facing high housing expenses may lack the resources needed to afford the costs associated with having children, leading to delayed childbearing.
In Italy, owning a home remains a key milestone in people’s life trajectories. Many couples still see buying a house as a necessary step before starting a family, even if it means taking on heavy financial burdens. This indicates that the prerequisites for having children are not limited to income but also include housing, which represents an additional barrier. Recognising this can help explain some of the deeper structural obstacles behind today’s low fertility rates.