How does demographic research interact with policymaking? How and when do demographers help institutions planning for the future? And how do they make sure that policy advice is always scientifically rigourous and actionable? This brief is based on the recommendations of leading foresight experts, who shared their expertise in a workshop of the Policy Lab of the EU-funded project "Towards a Resilient Future of Europe" (“FutuRes”).
Download Policy Brief 43/2024 (241.64 KB)
Policymaking is becoming increasingly fast moving, with challenges more global and interrelated. Societal shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical changes, have made it clear: policies must be versatile, forward-thinking, and responsive to future changes. This creates a need for anticipatory methods, such as foresight and forecasting, which can help inform policy action and increase societal resilience to crisis and change.
This Policy Brief provides an orientation for policymakers who consider using anticipatory methods. The Policy Brief is structured into four “Building Blocks”: dealing with uncertainty, qualitative scenario building, microsimulation models and game-based scenarios. It briefs policymakers on the benefits and limits of these approaches and provides examples of how they can be used to answer different policy challenges.
You are welcome to use this material free of charge and to quote it freely (with attribution). The publication was funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Programme, Grant Agreement n° 101094741. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.