Summary:
- Demographic research has been observing rural depopulation for decades, driven by better job and education prospects around larger cities.
- The rural exodus leads to a vicious circle which must be broken, should a rural community continue to function.
- Experts recommend a mix of policies, to attract potential entrepreneurs, support young women in particular, and make the community welcoming to newcomers.
The phenomenon has many names: some call it “rural flight”, “rural shrinking” or “rural exodus”, others “desertification of the countryside”. Yet we all mean the same trend. For decades, demographers have been documenting that population growth is seen around urban centres and decline in remote rural areas.
This has set in motion a "vicious cycle of depopulation", as explained below.
As a network of Europe’s top demographers, we want to offer information from the point of view of science, to help better inform policy. For this, we issue the following FAQ, which explains the key challenges and strategies: How is rural depopulation defined? Why are people moving away from rural areas? What can policy do?
How is rural depopulation defined?
For decades, demographers have noticed very unalike population developments in urban versus remote rural areas. The story is similar all over Europe. Rural depopulation is sometimes also called rural flight, rural shrinking, or rural exodus, with these terms being largely synonymous. In general, one can define rural depopulation as follows: urban and booming regions are growing, while rural areas are shrinking. The rural depopulation crisis is associated with policy challenges for Europe. These challenges, along with strategies, will be discussed in this FAQ.
The challenges: Why are people moving away from small towns and rural areas?
But why are people moving away from the small towns and rural areas? People feel like they have more or better job options in the vicinity of larger cities. This becomes a vicious circle: among the people who move away, some are potential entrepreneurs, founders, employers. Especially people who move away to get education are often very unlikely to return.
Who is moving away from rural areas?
According to demographic research, it is mostly younger people, and most prominently younger women, that are more likely to leave rural areas and move to larger cities. The motivation is often to get higher education or to have better employment chances.
What do people get wrong about rural depopulation?
Thinking that people no longer like small towns, or rural life. Indeed, rural life has many advantages to city life, such as lower housing cost, better air quality, community feeling, or proximity to nature. When people move away from rural areas, it is because they feel that they can better provide for themselves and their families in urban areas.
Depopulation FAQ: Rural shrinking leads to a vicious circle. Source: Sebastian Luna/pexels
What is the “vicious cycle” of rural depopulation?
Imagine a shrinking community: a village, town or even a small city where more people move away every year than come to settle. This will often begin what research has called a “vicious cycle” of depopulation.
Generally, here is how the vicious cycle of depopulation is set in motion: people of working age move away, so the community loses people who could otherwise start local businesses, or work in essential infrastructures like education, transport, care and health.
This also means that there is now less tax revenue, so the community is struggling to keep schools open, or childcare, or sports facilities, or bus lines.
As a result, the community is now less attractive: for young people or young families who are looking for a place to live, or for businesses who are looking for a place to settle.
The vicious cycle has to be broken, if the community wants to survive. But the local administration cannot do it alone. Ways of breaking the vicious cycle include: cooperation between communities, civil society, and support from higher policy levels like national or EU levels.
How will rural depopulation change Europe?
Because it is usually a career choice, the people moving away from small towns are typically of working-age. Meanwhile, people 65 or older tend to stay. That’s why rural towns not only shrink, but get older.
If there is no intervention at all, some villages and smaller towns will struggle to take care of their older population. This, however, is not a necessary destiny. It is possible that policies are found that make certain shrinking areas attractive again.
Strategies: What can policy do against rural depopulation?
There is no easy switch. However, there are strategies. Research and policy usually agree that one has to first understand what the main reason is for depopulation in each area, and then identify its potential.
How to help depopulating areas in Europe
Generally, one can say that if the community is seeking to attract young families, it should create a family- and baby-friendly environment, including good and accessible childcare for working parents. Furthermore, housing should be considered. Is it affordable for regular earners to have the space they need? Is the perspective of home ownership a realistic one? Maybe even to build one’s dream home?
Secondly, the area should be attractive to employers or new businesses. Considering the individual character of the community: which types of employers might be likely to be interested to settle here? What do they need?
Last but not least, promoting gender equality is crucial for the well-being of older and younger persons, and this needs to be properly addressed in local policies.
Can a community faced with depopulation save itself?
Community engagement is important. Sometimes a challenge like depopulation can become a catalyst for a community to come together. Sociological research finds that despite limited resources, many local communities have found innovative ways to keep public life vibrant. Civil society can bring ideas for initiatives into the community.
However, such local engagement is at risk to be hindered by two trends: a. less and less public funding of local infrastructure, and b. more and more fear-based narratives propagated by extremist movements.
In any case, it has to be stressed that a single community cannot break the vicious cycle of depopulation alone. Research strongly suggests that what is needed is cross-local and cross-regional cooperation, where different towns come together and pool resources. Cooperation must also happen between politics, business, civil society, and citizens. Local and regional businesses often have a vested interest in fighting local shrinking and can be won as partners that strengthen projects or financially support them.
Finally, science in Europe has to support these processes with high-quality advice, which has to be independent and based in rigorous evidence. Local administrations often lack the resources and expertise to assess whether advice by non-scientific actors really reflects the state of research or if it is shaped by a desired outcome.
It is also important to foster a welcoming atmosphere for migrants within the local community, so that new residents quickly feel at home and do not move away again.
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This FAQ was created in cooperation with We-ID, an EU-funded research project.