Among native-born Swedes and Norwegians, uncertain employment tends to reduce the likelihood of planning for children. However, new research shows a contrasting pattern among non-Western migrants: those experiencing insecure work or holding temporary contracts report significantly higher intentions to have children than comparable native-born individuals.
A study by Mimmi Lounela (Stockholm University), published in Genus, examines how employment uncertainty relates to fertility intentions in Sweden and Norway. It reveals a clear divergence between population groups.
Non-Western migrant men in non-permanent employment are around 37 percentage points more likely to report intentions to have children than native-born men in the same employment situation. When individuals perceive a high risk of job loss, the gap remains substantial at 28 percentage points.
Among women, non-Western migrants also show higher fertility intentions than native-born women under similar conditions, although the differences are somewhat smaller than those observed among men.
By contrast, Western-born migrants tend to resemble native-born individuals, showing similar patterns of reduced fertility intentions when facing employment uncertainty.
Why the Difference?
The study draws on the framework of “future narratives”—the ways individuals imagine realistic life trajectories available to them.
For native-born Swedes and Norwegians, stable employment is typically seen as a prerequisite for starting a family. When employment becomes uncertain, this expected pathway is disrupted, leading many to postpone or reconsider childbearing.
For non-Western migrants, the relationship between work and family formation appears to function differently. Many come from contexts where fertility is higher and where employment security is less tightly linked to decisions about having children. In addition, their position in the labour market is often more precarious, which may normalise employment insecurity as part of everyday life rather than an exceptional disruption.
Another possible explanation is that childbearing may serve as a source of stability and meaning in contexts where economic institutions are perceived as less accessible. This is described in the literature as the “uncertainty reduction hypothesis”.
Importantly, these patterns are particularly pronounced among men, a pattern that existing theories about gender roles cannot fully explain.
Implications
The findings show that employment uncertainty does not translate into lower fertility intentions in a uniform way across populations. While native-born individuals tend to delay or reconsider childbearing when employment is insecure, non-Western migrants display a different pattern, with higher fertility intentions under similar conditions.
This suggests that the relationship between economic insecurity and family formation is shaped by social background and lived experience, rather than operating in a single, universal way.