Italy has one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe, rooted in a long-standing shortage of public childcare and a welfare system that still relies heavily on families to absorb care responsibilities. Against this backdrop, a new study led by Eleonora Miaci (Sapienza University of Rome) asks whether access to formal childcare helps mothers plan and realise another birth – and whether this works differently for native-born and migrant women.
The research links childcare use, unmet childcare needs, fertility intentions and actual births, with a particular focus on migration background. Unlike much of the existing literature, it considers not only whether mothers use childcare, but whether they do so by choice. Some rely on informal care because formal services are unavailable; others have no childcare support at all.
The analysis is based on 8,661 partnered mothers interviewed 18 to 21 months after childbirth in the 2012 Italian Birth Sample Survey. Fertility outcomes range from negative intentions to short-term intentions and actual pregnancies or births, and are examined across childcare arrangements and migration backgrounds, controlling for key demographic factors.
The results show that formal childcare plays a relatively limited role in shaping whether mothers say they want another child. Using a nursery is associated with only slightly more positive intentions, although it does modestly increase the likelihood of having another child in the short term.
Unmet childcare needs, by contrast, matter far more. Mothers who cannot access their preferred childcare – or who have no one to turn to for help – are more likely to express negative fertility intentions. But this relationship changes sharply once migration background is taken into account.
Among native-born mothers, the pattern is straightforward: those using formal childcare are the most likely to plan and have another child, while those with unmet needs are the least likely. Among migrant mothers, however, fertility appears far less responsive to childcare. Strikingly, migrant women with no childcare support at all show the highest likelihood of a subsequent birth, suggesting that fertility in this group may be less planned and less tied to institutional provision.
There is also substantial diversity within the migrant population. Mothers who migrated at younger ages show patterns closer to native-born women, while first-generation migrants are less influenced by childcare availability. Mixed-background couples fall somewhere in between, reflecting partial adaptation to Italian institutions.
The message is clear. Expanding formal childcare is necessary, but it will not be enough to change Italy’s fertility trajectory on its own. Addressing unmet childcare needs is just as important – and so is recognising that childcare does not shape fertility in the same way for all families, with native-born and migrant mothers responding differently. Even though more childcare may not have a massive effect encouraging more babies, less childcare would definitely discourage those who rely on it.