Why this matters
Europe’s demographic challenges are becoming more acute. Fertility rates remain below replacement in most countries, population ageing is accelerating, and labour shortages are spreading across sectors such as health and social care, construction, education and digital services. Migration is often viewed as a key mechanism to sustain labour supply and support population renewal.
Yet migration decisions are shaped by more than wages, jobs and formal migration rules. The social climate in destination countries also matters. When public attitudes towards immigration are hostile, migrants may choose to go elsewhere—even when economic opportunities exist.
New evidence shows that public attitudes towards immigration significantly influence migration flows to Europe. Countries with more negative public sentiment attract fewer migrants, even after accounting for economic conditions and migration policies. This effect is particularly strong for migration within the European Union, where freedom of movement allows workers to respond quickly to differences in social climate. As a result, public attitudes towards immigration have direct implications for labour supply, population ageing and long-term demographic sustainability, see Di Iasio and Wahba (2026).
What does the evidence show?
Recent research examines bilateral migration flows to 22 EU destination countries between 2000 and 2019 and links them to natives’ attitudes towards immigration. Public attitudes are measured using Eurobarometer data, capturing the share of natives who consider immigration to be one of the most important issues facing their country.
The results show a clear and robust pattern: destinations with more negative public attitudes towards immigration receive fewer migrants in subsequent years. This relationship holds after accounting for income levels, unemployment, migrant networks, geographic proximity and migration policy changes.
Importantly, the analysis addresses the concern that migration itself may influence public opinion. By exploiting variation in broadband internet penetration—which shapes exposure to information and public attitudes but does not directly affect migration flows—the study identifies a causal effect of attitudes on migration. More hostile public sentiment leads to lower immigration.
Why attitudes matter especially within the EU
The impact of public attitudes is not uniform across migrant groups. It is strongest for migration within the European Union.
Free movement gives EU citizens wide discretion over where to live and work. When legal and administrative barriers are low, social and political factors become more important in destination choice. Workers are more likely to avoid countries perceived as unwelcoming, even when labour demand is strong.
The evidence shows that intra-EU migration is significantly more sensitive to public attitudes than migration from outside the EU. By contrast, non-EU migration is driven more strongly by economic incentives and migrant networks, and is less responsive to social climate, reflecting restrictive policies and strong push factors in origin countries.
This distinction matters because intra-EU migrants are typically younger and economically active—precisely the groups most needed to offset population ageing.
Demographic implications
Public attitudes towards immigration shape Europe’s demographic future in several ways.
First, they influence where migrants choose to go. Countries facing labour shortages may struggle to attract workers if public sentiment remains hostile.
Second, attitudes affect the composition of migration. Younger and more highly skilled migrants are often the most mobile and the most responsive to social climate. Negative public attitudes may therefore reduce inflows of migrants who contribute most to labour supply and fiscal sustainability.
Third, migration affects long-term population dynamics through its impact on age structures, dependency ratios and population renewal. By discouraging migration, hostile social environments can accelerate ageing and workforce decline.
In this sense, public attitudes towards immigration act as a hidden demographic constraint.
Policy implications
Migration policy alone cannot fully address Europe’s labour shortages if public attitudes remain negative. Even open borders or liberal admission rules may be insufficient when destinations are perceived as unwelcoming.
Policies that promote social cohesion, counter misinformation and foster positive interactions between natives and immigrants may therefore complement migration policy in important ways. Addressing public attitudes is not only a matter of social integration—it is central to Europe’s capacity to respond to demographic ageing and labour-market pressures.
Acknowledgement:
This work was supported by the EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870299: QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy.