This Policy Brief - part of the QuantMig Project - presents results from a set of simulations on the impact of high-migration events on the future labour force size in Europe, assuming a continuation of past demographic, educational, labour force participation trends, and differentials between the native-born and different groups of immigrants in terms of their origin (region of birth).
Although high-migration events cannot be predicted, we can simulate such situations in scenarios and outline their potential impacts to inform greater policy preparedness.
Even high-migration events with persisting migration cannot substantially boost future labour force size in European countries.
Bijak J., Kupiszewski, M. & Kupiszewska, D. (2008) Replacement migration revisited: Simulations of the effects of selected population and labor market strategies for the aging Europe, 2002–2052. Population Research and Policy Review, 27, 321–342.
Marois, G., Sabourin, P. & Bélanger, A. (2019) How reducing differentials in education and labor force participation could lessen workforce decline in the EU-28. Demographic Research 41, 125-160.
Potančoková M., Marois, G. & González-Leonardo, M. (2023) Demographic and labour force implications of high immigration events scenarios. QuantMig Project Deliverable D10.1, forthcoming via www.quantmig.eu.
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 870299. This document reflects the authors’ view and the Research Executive Agency of the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
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