Revealing the True Magnitude of Violent Deaths
Measuring the human cost of an ongoing conflict is exceptionally difficult. As of October 2025, the Gaza Ministry of Health had registered around 67,160 deaths caused by traumatic injuries, with demographic information available for approximately 90% of those recorded. However, the destruction of administrative infrastructure, widespread displacement, environmental devastation, and the presence of thousands of bodies still trapped beneath rubble mean that the true death toll is likely to be substantially higher.
To address these challenges, researchers from the Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics (CED) and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) developed a demographic framework that combines available mortality data with information about the population exposed to the conflict. The approach also accounts for uncertainty from the data sources.
Their findings suggest that approximately 115,000 people were killed violently during the first two years of the war (uncertainty interval: 104,000–129,000). This estimate is considerably higher than the 67,160 deaths officially registered by October 2025 and represents the loss of roughly 5% of Gaza's pre-war population (around 2.1 million people).
More than deaths alone
Beyond these deaths, population losses were amplified by displacement and a sharp decline in births. As a result, Gaza's total resident population fell by an estimated 10.6% over the same period, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.
This decline reflects the combined effects of direct mortality, the forced departure of around 100,000 residents, and a sharp reduction in births driven by malnutrition and acute psychological trauma.
Civilians at the centre of the toll
In many armed conflicts, mortality is concentrated among young adult men, particularly combatants. Gaza presents a markedly different pattern.
Large-scale bombardments of residential areas and the destruction of civilian infrastructure have exposed the broader population to lethal risk. Children under 15, women, and adults over 60 accounted for 57% of recorded victims during the first year of the war and remained above 40% during the second year.
A century of progress lost
The effects on life expectancy illustrate the depth of the demographic shock.
During the first year of conflict, life expectancy at birth fell to just 29.5 years, compared with the 77 years that would have been expected in the absence of war—a decline of approximately 60%. In the second year, life expectancy recovered slightly to 40.4 years but remained around 50% below the expected level.
Using historical demographic reconstructions, the researchers show that survival conditions in Gaza have fallen to levels comparable to those observed during the late Ottoman period. In other words, more than a century of improvements in survival achieved through advances in public health, medicine, education, and socioeconomic development has effectively been wiped out.
The consequences will continue beyond the war
Violent deaths capture only part of the humanitarian crisis. The displacement of more than 90% of Gaza's population, widespread food insecurity, environmental degradation, and the destruction of healthcare facilities are likely to continue affecting mortality and health outcomes even after active fighting ends. These consequences may persist for years, shaping the wellbeing of future generations.
Documenting these demographic impacts is not only a scientific necessity but also an ethical one. Reliable evidence will be essential for future accountability efforts, public health planning, mental health interventions, and policies aimed at supporting a population that has experienced profound and long-lasting trauma.