With a historic demographic shift underway, Europe is at a pivotal crossroads in terms of policy. Populations are ageing, birth rates are declining, regional disparities are widening, all while migration patterns are reshaping societies. These profound shifts challenge long-standing social contracts, economic models, and the very fabric of intergenerational solidarity and social cohesion in the European Union.
This is why in November 2025, leading demographers, policymakers, and civil society representatives convened at the German-Italian Centre for European Dialogue, Villa Vigoni, in Italy to dissect these challenges and to draft pathways towards resilience and social cohesion in Europe. The conference was anchored around four panel discussions on the following topics:
- Regional Disparity and Territorial Cohesion
- Intergenerational Fairness and Solidarity
- Population Diversity and Social Cohesion
- Per-Capita Productivity and Growth
This event review offers an overview of the key themes, evidence, and policy directions emerging from this vital dialogue.
The event was organised by Population Europe, the network of Europe’s leading demographic research centres, which pioneers a science-to-policy approach to redesigning social systems in response to Europe’s complex ageing society. The conference was supported by the EU-funded FutuRes Policy Lab, the Förderfonds Wissenschaft in Berlin and the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB).
Toward Societal Resilience – Europe’s Unfolding Demographic Landscape
On the first day, the conference opened by grounding discussions in the stark realities of Europe's demographic evolution based on findings by experts of the Population Europe network. Driven by increasing longevity and sustained low fertility rates, Europe’s demographic structure is shifting towards societies in which working-age cohorts are shrinking dramatically compared to non-working cohorts in the decades to come.
This transition fundamentally challenges Europe’s social contract, a framework predicated on intergenerational reciprocity. Ageing societies alter the dependency ratio, placing increased pressure on social systems designed for the demography of the 1950s and putting a disproportionate burden on younger generations. Rising pension costs, funded primarily through contributions from the current workforce, create a tangible strain.
These developments are already creating social tensionsin European societies. The recent protests by younger people in Italy and Germany against pension reforms are indicative of the dissatisfaction and anger arising from this imbalance. Meanwhile, younger cohorts are becoming a numerical and political minority, potentially diminishing their influence over policies shaping their future, particularly within the context of policies designed to support re-election by increasingly older societies.
Population Europe’s experts have consequently developed “resilience” as a framework to address and proactively adapt to these challenges. Identifying key issues of social change, the project exemplifies the extent to which demographic research provides an evidential foundation for effective policymaking and public understanding.
For example, the EU-funded FutuRes project’s framework of societal resilience builds on four interconnected policy levers that are crucial for the development of all European societies: (1) support for people to realise their fertility intentions via comprehensive family policies enabling better childcare access, housing affordability, job security, and work-life balance; (2) immigration that helps sustain labour markets and innovation while also investing in meaningful inclusion and participation of immigrants in society; (3) longer working lives facilitated by age-friendly workplaces, health promotion, and flexible work arrangements; and (4) technology and AI used to complement, not replace human work, deployed to boost productivity while mitigating labour gaps.
Underpinning all of these levers is the critical role of education, particularly lifelong learning (LLL). The rapid pace of technological change and the extension of people’s working lives make continuous skill renewal more critical than ever. Education fosters both individual adaptability and broader societal resilience, directly contributing to intergenerational fairness by equipping people of all ages for meaningful participation.
In the discussions, however, FutuRes experts and participants identified critical disconnects between policy mechanisms and LLL as a long-term demographic imperative. Electoral cycles, for instance, prioritize short-term interventions, such as raising retirement ages, over sustained investment in LLL. These mismatched timelines of demographers and policymakers were a recurring theme of the conference. Additionally, there are jurisdictional constraints of EU governance, which primarily encourages and coordinates national efforts rather than impose solutions, shifting responsibility to Member States with uneven resources and knowledge.
Against this backdrop, the Policy Labs of FutuRes and other EU-funded projects, including MAPIneq and We-ID, all of which are coordinated by Population Europe, operate at the science-policy nexus to inform and co-design adaptive governance frameworks for demographic resilience.
Following this opening dialogue, presenters engaged in four panel discussions with participants on the second conference day, as discussed below.
The uneven impact of demographic change across Europe's regions formed a major theme. Population decline is not uniform; it concentrates in specific areas, often rural, mountainous, or economically weaker regions, creating stark territorial inequalities.
These dynamics often reinforce themselves, leading to a spiral of regional decline. Regions experiencing economic hardship often see accelerated out-migration, particularly of young adults seeking education and employment opportunities elsewhere (“brain drain”). This further depopulation leads to reduced tax bases, forcing cuts to essential services like schools, hospitals, and public transport. The loss of these services makes the region even less attractive, accelerating the downward spiral. Projections indicate poorer regions are likely to decline faster than wealthier ones.
The presenters identified migration as the dominant driver of regional population developments. Internal migration (within countries and across the EU) is in fact the primary driver of regional population change, far outweighing differences in fertility or mortality. Migration is also age-specific, peaking between 20-40 years of age, and driven overwhelmingly by labour market opportunities. This creates a fundamental tension between the EU’s “right to free movement” and the resulting depopulation that challenges the EU’s commitment to “territorial cohesion” and the “right to stay” for those remaining in declining areas.
Germany exemplifies these trends. East Germany faces ageing and net emigration, while the bigger cities, especially those that attract international migrants, as well as the prosperous Southern regions, continue to grow. Projections show rural/low-density areas will continue to decline even in the case of “high-migration scenarios” to the country overall. Beyond metrics, subjective wellbeing, based on life satisfaction indicators, reveal subtle disparities.
An important conclusion of this panel was that policies cannot realistically reverse the trend of demographic decline in regions that are driven primarily by migration patterns. Rather, discussants argued that policies must shift towards mitigating the negative consequences and improving the quality of life for remaining residents. Attempting to forcibly keep young people from migrating was deemed neither feasible nor desirable.
In Germany, proactive programs are already taking place to increase the attractiveness of depopulating regions. For example, Brandenburg offers a newcomer and returnee program (“Ankommen in Brandenburg”) and Rhineland-Palatinate developed a program that funds village-led revitalization projects (“Zukunfts-Check Dorf”). In addition, the central information hub “Demografie-Portal” of the BiB offers an overview of best practices across Germany.
Participants also highlighted the importance of a “multi-actor approach” toward mitigating the challenges of regional population decline, identifying notably the role of the private sector. They stressed that businesses, employers, and unions play a pivotal role in co-shaping and supporting regional opportunities through workforce investments, daycare centres, and place-based innovation.
Therefore, addressing regional disparity demands a multi-pronged strategy. First, it requires evidence-based foundations that integrate demographic and economic data with qualitative research on wellbeing. Second, a multi-actor approach that includes representatives of civil society, policy-making, research, and business is crucial. Third, policy interventions need to be targeted at critical life stages, including early childhood support, school-to-work transition, housing, and mobility, to equalise opportunities regardless of location. And, fourth, best practices must be documented and shared widely to co-create knowledge about local and regional opportunities.
The second panel focused on intergenerational fairness and solidarity in Europe. It drew attention to the role of narratives, terminology, and the presentation of data in shaping perceptions of demographic change and its societal implications.
In this context, the discourse surrounding ageing populations came under scrutiny. Terms like “demographic winter” or “ice age” were criticized for fostering unnecessary alarmism and hindering constructive solutions. Instead, the concept of “Positive Demography” was proposed to acknowledge that all change is scary, but not necessarily dramatic.
While acknowledging the challenges of a new demographic era characterised by longevity and lower birth rates, this concept focuses on adaptation and harnessing the potential of all age groups. Building on FutuRes’ recommendations for improving opportunities for lifelong learning and promoting anti-ageism policies, the concept of “Positive Demography” emphasises that longevity poses a macro-level challenge. However, at a micro level, it argues that healthy, active older people can be a valuable asset to society. Their value must therefore be recognised and utilised to increase societal resilience and cohesion, while also supporting older people in gaining social and cultural capital.
These sociocultural and political dimensions of an ageing society has recently helped experts in Italy develop an Index of Intergenerational Justice the key ideas of which were taken up and discussed. The index quantifies fairness between age groups across dimensions like comparable opportunities, choices, and political voice to spark informed debate and policy action. Initial findings suggest that younger people have more social connections and are thus favoured in relational equality, while older people are favoured in political equality as they have a larger voting share, a challenge set to intensify.
Another perspective in the discussion approached the issue of intergenerational fairness and solidarity by focusing on the demographic dynamics that destabilize the social contract in European countries. While the social contract of welfare states promises that each generation contributes to and benefits from a system passed forward, analysis reveals that governance of these states is overwhelmingly progressive and pro-elderly – within each socio-economic group, the oldest cohorts receive the most resources.
Furthermore, research quantifies the disproportionate “parental resource contribution”, again drawing attention to the underlying narratives and policy implications to do with fertility and families. Parents in Europe contribute significantly more – estimated at 2.66 times the societal median – through money, time, and taxes to sustain this contract than they receive back in public benefits during their child-rearing years. Low-fertility societies tax their own reproduction, undervaluing parents’ and women’s “reproductive work”, thereby creating friction and contributing to fertility decline, particularly in countries with high perceived support.
Discussions in this panel also drew attention to the limitations of the terminology and concepts that are used. While “intergenerational fairness” is prominent in EU discourse, concerns were raised that it could inadvertently pit generations against each other or be used to avoid addressing complex inequalities within generations. “Solidarity” and “justice” were suggested as alternative or complementary concepts that emphasise mutual support and ethical obligations throughout the life course. In line with a more “positive” approach to demography, participants also emphasised the importance of removing negative connotations associated with “ageing” in research and public discourse.
Based on this exchange, a key takeaway from the second panel was the need for a “realism-infused optimism” and the imperative for renewed intergenerational alliances. While systemic support for kinlessness and loneliness among older populations remains urgent, participants equally stressed that cultivating societal valuation of later life – and strategically mobilising older adults’ cultural and social capital through LLL and anti-ageism policies – constitutes a complementary pathway toward resilient ageing societies.
Photo: Kampus Productions
As previous panel discussions showed, Europe’s future is inextricably linked to migration, both internal and international. This panel confronted the realities and complexities of increasing population diversity and its impact on social cohesion.
Data confirms that many European countries face natural population decline (more deaths than births), rendering well-managed migration a demographic necessity to prevent populations from significantly shrinking. Supporting FutuRes’ strategic focus, research underscores that sustained immigration across Europe is essential for maintaining labour supply in critical sectors such as transport, healthcare, and public services as well as a catalyst for innovation.
However, panel discussants presented evidence of significant non-acceptance of migrants, and particularly of non-white men, in some European countries. While migrants tended to assimilate towards minority groups within the host society, lack of social cohesion and dissatisfaction were also linked to broader economic anxieties and a perceived “development trap” in certain regions, further fuelling political polarisation. It was noted that education and early integration measures were critical levers for fostering greater societal acceptance of migrants and help increase social cohesion.
This interplay between depopulation and anger was perceived as a particular challenge, as regions experiencing significant decline often vote for right-wing parties. This underscores the link between demographic change, economic decline, and social discontent.
The panel also highlighted the continued challenge of inconsistent and fragmented migration data, which remains a critical barrier to both research and evidence-based policy-making. Discussions emphasised the urgency of improving data infrastructure through census harmonisation and exploring innovative sources, leveraging satellite imagery, mobile data, and metadata from scientific publications to illuminate migratory patterns. While biases and ethical considerations require vigilance, broader data sets were seen as an important path forward to increase knowledge for migration dynamics.
To address these complex dynamics, participants advocated a comprehensive approach centred on policy options, migration discourse, and multi-actor engagement: First, advancing integration policies that foster genuine opportunity for immigrants beyond basic settlement; second, actively reshaping public narratives to balance migration discourse while countering misinformation; and third, deepening multi-stakeholder coalitions, particularly engaging businesses as key partners and community pillars who could also provide valuable demographic data.
Complementing previous debates, the final panel examined how demographic shifts reshape economic resilience. Experts advocated moving beyond simplistic age-based metrics toward a multi-dimensional demographic approach that better reflects real-world productivity dynamics. This framework accounts for labour market participation, including, for example, part-time versus full-time employment, education levels, health status, and migration impacts.
As productivity and economic contribution are heavily influenced by factors beyond simple age brackets, it was suggested to complicate evaluations of the labour force dependency ratio, which compares the number of non-working-age people, i.e., children and older people, and working-age people in a population. Rather, researchers demanded that information on education levels and attainment as well as on health and ability be integrated to measure productivity, adaptability and needs of care.
Gender disparities emerged as particularly consequential. Women’s unpaid care responsibilities, which continue to be vastly disproportionate in European societies, combined with fewer paid working hours, create significant gaps in lifetime earnings, pension security, and tax revenue. This is true even in countries with high female employment rates. The undervaluation of unpaid care work, predominantly pertaining to both child and elderly care, was highlighted as a systemic issue.
To transform these structural challenges into opportunities, discussants proposed a system in which governments take a more strategic role in the coordination of education, labour, family and migration policies, to optimise human capital. This should be done by emphasising three areas for targeted policy-making: first, education-driven “human capital dividends” through continuous upskilling and reskilling (LLL); second, maximising workforce participation, particularly women’s and older people; and, third, the early integration of migrants into the labour market.
The panel concluded that persistently communicating these evidence-based insights to policy-makers is crucial. They stressed that demographic resilience requires redefining productivity to encompass the multifaceted nature of human capital, including education, health, migration, and unpaid care, to enhance societal productivity and economic resilience in Europe.
Conclusions – Building Bridges for a Resilient Future for Europeans of the 21st Century
A recurring theme of the conference was the call for a multi-actor approach to pro-actively address the challenges associated with demographic change. While participants defended the importance of independent academic research, they advocated for moving beyond the “ivory tower”. The engagement of policy-makers, businesses, civil society, unions, and the media was identified as a pivotal strategy for influencing public discourse, fostering consensus, and driving change. Transdisciplinary approaches were perceived as vital, bringing diverse stakeholders together with scientists to co-create solutions – as exemplified by the diverse participant group of this conference at Villa Vigoni.
Building on the advocacy for a “realism-infused optimism”, the conference concluded with a call for proactive, evidence-based adaptation policies and narratives. Demographic change is a powerful force, but it is not an unalterable destiny. By understanding the multi-faceted nature of the challenge, including regional disparities, intergenerational fairness, diversity, and human capital development, and by fostering robust dialogue between science, policy, business, and citizens, Europe can navigate its demographic transformation towards a future characterised by resilience, fairness, and shared prosperity.
Many of these issues will be discussed in Population Europe's "Tuesday Dialogue" Series.
Panel Speakers:
Arnstein Aassve
Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak
Andreas Edel
Wolfgang Lutz
Melinda Mills
Fabrizio Natale
Katharina Spieß
Pieter Vanhuysse
Daniele Vignoli
Emilio Zagheni