The western and the eastern parts of Europe have been persistently different in their demographic, economic, and social development. Nikolai Botev examines some of these differences and discusses their importance for the process of population ageing and intergenerational relations in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE includes the former communist countries).
Demographic change within political, economic, and social transformations
When population growth is considered, the former communist countries significantly diverge from Northern and Western Europe (see figure 1). The latter still experiences positive natural increase and net migration growth, whereas most of the countries in the CEE region are marked by natural decrease and/or high emigration.
Figure 1: Countries by contribution of natural increase and net migration of population growth, 2000-2005. (Note: A=natural increase + negative net migration; B=natural increase + positive net migration; C=natural decrease + positive net migration; D=natural decrease + negative net migration)
Furthermore, high emigration and mortality, combined with rapid fertility transitions, gender differences, and the pro-natalist policies of the communist regimes have led to what the author calls “disordered cohort flows”. This means that the populations in CEE consist of “wave-like sequences” of bigger and smaller cohorts. Cohorts in that part of Europe also differ in their ability to adjust to political, economic and social changes. Botev argues that younger generations were able to adapt more easily to the new way of life than were older generations. This has led to an increasing tension between generations and thus a widening intergenerational gap.
“East-west inequalities” in average lifespan
Death rates in CEE countries have been higher than in the rest of Europe since the 1960s. After the start of the transition period in the early 1990s some improvement in mortality has been observed in the region; however, life expectancy at birth remains lower. This is especially true for men, who are most affected by high mortality. According to Botev, high mortality has affected population ageing more significantly than has low fertility, and it is for the most part responsible for the lower ageing indicators in CEE compared with Western Europe. This trend results in a smaller burden for social security systems.
The impact of emigration
Emigration is a key determinant of population ageing in the CEE region, for it is the young who most frequently emigrate. Two main consequences are associated with emigration. First, the number of economically active people at fertile age is reduced. Botev argues that this trend hampers the economic development of the CEE countries and leaves governments with fewer possibilities for cushioning the negative effects of population ageing.
Second, emigration often leads to shifts in responsibilities across generations: It is not the young caring for their parents who are in need, but instead the grandparents caring for grandchildren whose parents emigrated. In this regard Botev posits that the more active participation of grandparents in childrearing fosters stronger interdependency between generations.
Different generational length
In recent decades the mean age at childbirth in CEE and Western Europe has started to converge, yet clear discrepancies remain. Using this fact as a starting point, Botev argues that in Central and Eastern Europe the generational length is shorter than it is in the rest of the continent. The author suggests that this development allows for better maintenance of relations between generations in terms of emotional attachments and compatibility of interests. He also points out that when the parents’ generation will be around 80 years old and in greater need for care, their children’s generation will have likely reached retirement and thus will be able to provide that care.
Potential loser of the transition period
The transition period has seriously affected not only the demographic development of the ex-communist states but also people’s well-being. In the past two decades income deteriorated and poverty rates among older people and children increased significantly.
Figure 2: Child versus old-age poverty in the EU member states, 2009. Source European Survey of Income and Living Conditions, EuroStat, online database
Figure 2 shows that in 2009 half of the new member states had high child poverty levels with Romania taking a leading position. The other half incl. Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia and Latvia were leaders in poverty rates among older people. According to Botev subjective indicators also suggest that older people in CEE perceive themselves as “the losers of the transition period”.
In order to response to these challenges, Botev advocates that policy makers should better acknowledge the specifics of the population ageing in the region. The author especially points out the need of improving health care systems and infrastructures for institutional care, as well as the promotion of healthier lifestyles.
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This volume has been published with financial support of the European Union in the framework of Population Europe.