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Projections and Forecasts

A world population of 7 billion in 2011... and how many tomorrow? For thousands of years, human beings were a rare species and their numbers grew very slowly. By around 1800, the population began to increase rapidly, starting in the rich countries and then, from the twentieth century, in the rest of the world. What are the reasons for this growth, and what factors are affecting the population today? Will the world population level off in the years to come? How will the world be populated in the future? [...]
Course description Panel data offer advantages for analyzing individual dynamics and identifying causal effects. This course will present methods that allow capitalizing on these advantages: fixed-effects methods and growth curve models. The course will be on an applied level in that not the mathematics but the intuition behind the models will be emphasized. Real data examples using the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), the German Family Panel (pairfam) and Stata will be presented. [...]
James W. Vaupel is Founding Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock where he heads the Laboratory of Survival and Longevity, the Laboratory of Population and Policy, and the Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography. He is also Director of the Max Planck International Research Network on Ageing and Professor at the University of Southern Denmark. James W. Vaupel is Panel Chair for the European Research Council Starting Grant and Rector of the European Doctoral School of Demography. James W. [...]

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